951 AXPZ20 KNHC 100808 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, resulting in the development of a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun afternoon reaching up to storm-force Sun night. Peak seas should reach around 20 ft Sun night and Mon morning. Storm-force winds will end Mon morning, but gale-force winds and rough seas will prevail in the region of Tehuantepec into Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ extends from 06N92W to 08N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong is convection noted from 06N-10N between 117W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds. High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing strong to near gale NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California with seas 6-9 ft over the central and N Gulf and 5-7 ft over the S Gulf. This wind surge over the Gulf of California is likely also causing some fresh to strong gap wind events just west of the Baja California peninsula. There is a small fresh to strong N wind maximum in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due to overnight drainage flow. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends from a XXXX mb high off of California to near the Baja California and SW Mexico coasts. Only gentle to moderate winds are resulting over the open Pacific waters. Seas are 8 ft in large NW swell west of Baja California and 5-7 ft off of SW Mexico. For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California through tonight. A recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California may being Thu night. Large NW swell will gradually subside off Baja California later today. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the W Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region with seas 6-7 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are occurring elsewhere with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure over the W Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south should continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds north of the area over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate large NW swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight into Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the surface ridging along the W coast of Mexico and the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades from 07N-22N west of 120W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with 8-10 ft seas in large NW swell. For the forecast, the surface ridging should weaken by Tue, diminishing the trades Tue into Thu. Seas should drop below 8 ft by Wed over the tradewind belt. On tonight into Mon night, fresh to strong NE winds associated with the Tehuanteper gap wind event will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with seas 8-12 ft. A large, long-period swell should reach the NW corner of the waters on Wed and gradually decay while quickly moving southeastward. $$ Landsea