377 
AXPZ20 KNHC 091522
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sun night, resulting in gap 
winds in the Tehuantepec region beginning this afternoon with 
fresh to strong wings, reaching gale-force Sun afternoon, and 
storm-force shortly thereafter, by Sun night. Storm-force winds 
and rough seas to 21 ft are forecast to continue into Mon 
morning. Afterward, gale-force winds will prevail in the region 
of Tehuantepec Wed. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N89W to 07N112W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 111W and 
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

Strong high pressure N of the area continue to extend a ridge SE
across the Baja California region. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a surface trough near the west coast of mainland
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja 
offshores along with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW swell as
well as fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft in 
the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh 
northerly winds and seas to 5 ft are ongoing. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will begin to subside off
Baja California on Sun. Another set of NW swell will enter the 
Baja California Norte Mon evening, but will subside early on Wed.
Strong winds will develop along the Gulf of California this 
morning, producing rough seas to 8 ft in the northern gulf during
the weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 7 ft. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the south with
seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate N winds are pulsing in the
Gulf of Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
along with seas to 6 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, a strong gap 
wind event is forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region 
tonight, which will generate northerly swell affecting the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sun night through early
Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extending from strong high pressure N of the area
continue to dominates the waters N of 14N and W of 110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ continue to
support mainly fresh NE to E winds across this same region where
seas range between 8 to 10 ft. In the far western tropical waters,
fresh to strong winds and seas to 12 ft are noted approximately 
from 10N to 17N and W of 128W. Mainly moderate winds and 7 to 10
ft seas are noted elsewhere, including S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
through early next week. Large, long-period NW swell will 
continue to move across the forecast waters, gradually decaying  
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a new round of long period NW
swell with seas in excess of 12 ft is likely to enter the NW
waters late next week. 

$$
Konarik