364 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090951
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico Sat night through Sun night, resulting in a 
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region beginning this afternoon
with fresh to strong wings, reaching gale-force Sun afternoon and
storm-force shortly thereafter, by Sun night. Storm-force winds
and rough seas to 21 ft are forecast to continue through Mon
morning. Afterward, gale-force winds will prevail in the region 
of Tehuantepec through Tue night. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N88W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N88W to 06N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 107W and 
120W, and from 04N to 09N between 120W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for an upcoming
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. 
 
Strong high pressure N of the area continue to extend a ridge SE
across the Baja California region. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a surface trough along W Mexico continue to support
moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja offshores along with
seas in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW swell, being the strongest 
winds and highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California with seas to 2 ft.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh northerly winds and
seas to 4 ft are ongoing. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will begin to subside off
Baja California on Sun. Another set of NW swell will enter the
Baja California Norte Mon evening, but will subside early on Wed. 
Strong winds will develop along the Gulf of California this 
morning, producing rough seas to 8 ft in the northern gulf during
the weekend. These winds will diminish on Mon. A strong cold 
front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, resulting
in the development of gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Sun afternoon and storm-force shortly thereafter, by Sun night. 
Storm-force winds and rough seas are forecast to continue 
through Mon morning. Afterward, gale-force winds will prevail in 
the region of Tehuantepec through Tue night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 6 ft. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south 
with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Moderate N winds are pulsing in 
the Gulf of Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
along with seas to 6 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, a strong gap
wind event is forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region
tonight, which will generate northerly swell affecting the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sun night through early
Wed.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N. Fresh to strong 
trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 10N to 25N W of 
122W. Seas in this region are 10 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas due 
to the trade wind flow and long-period NW swell. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
through early next week. Large, long-period NW swell will 
continue to move across the all the forecast waters. Seas to 13 
ft are expected from 07.5N to 19.5N and W of 124W through the 
weekend, while seas of 7 to 11 ft will prevail elsewhere. This 
swell will gradually decay this weekend. Looking ahead, the next
NW 12 ft seas swell event may beginning by the end of next week.


$$
Ramos