000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080725
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 05N97W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N97W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 13N and W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has slipped S to offshore waters N of 27N. 
Fresh N winds prevail behind the front with gentle to moderate 
winds to the S. NW swell is inducing 8 to 12 ft seas south 
through the Revillagigedo Islands. Light winds and seas of 1 to 3
ft are ongoing in the Gulf of California, with light to gentle 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell for the remainder of 
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Long-period NW swell will persist off Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands through Sat. Strong 
winds are likely to develop across most of the Gulf of California
this weekend, producing rough seas. A gale-force winds event are
likely to occur over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend 
into early next week along with very rough seas. Storm- force 
winds may develop Sun night in this area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere over the region. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters mostly within N to NW swell due 
to the influence of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
Elsewhere, seas range 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of the 
monsoon trough off the coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse
across the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the forecast 
period. Light to gentle breezes will persist across the Gulf of 
Panama region through Mon. SW swell will maintain 7 ft seas 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N. Fresh to strong 
trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 10N to 20N W of 
120W. Seas in this region are 10 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas due 
to the trade wind flow and long-period NW swell. A weakening  
front stretches from 27N120W to 25N140W. N of the front, fresh 
NE winds prevail with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Combined seas of 8 to 
11 ft cover much of the region elsewhere W of 110W, although 
with primarily S to SE swell S of 00N. Gentle to moderate winds 
and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted E of 110W. 

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will continue to weaken
tonight. This will allow for trade winds to diminish slightly W 
of 115W. Large, long-period NW swell will continue to move 
across the all the forecast waters. Seas to 13 ft are expected 
from 05N to 20N and W of 120W through the weekend. E of 110W, 
the combination of the NW swell with shorter-period NE swell 
emerging from gap winds and fresh E trade winds will support 
rough seas from 05N to 12N between 95W and 110W through Fri. 
Overall swell will gradually decay this weekend.

$$
ERA