000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050252
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure continues
to build over central Mexico. This is supporting a surge of 
northerly gap winds reaching gale force across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This pattern will persist through much of week, 
with gales pulsing mainly at night through Thu night. Seas may 
reach 10 to 12 ft downstream of the strongest winds during the 
overnight hours. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N95W to 06N105W. A
segment of the ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 09N110W. Another 
segment extends from 08N115W to 06N125W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 125W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja 
California from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N127W to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a trough located along the eastern shore of the Gulf of 
California supports fresh to locally strong NW to N winds over 
the central and southern Gulf of California. This was registered
by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Seas range 5 to 7 ft
in this area. The pattern is also supporting mainly moderate NW 
to NW to N winds off Baja California. NW swell has moved across 
the Baja California Norte waters bringing 8 to 10 ft seas N of 
23N. South of 23N, seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Farther south,
light breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft 
combined seas in mixed swell. Scattered thunderstorms are 
occurring across the Michoacan and Jalisco offshore waters. 

For the forecast, outside of the gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, long- period NW swell will persist off Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands through most of the 
week. Seas as high as 12 ft could move across the California 
Norte waters by Wed night. Reinforcing NW swell will arrive off 
Baja California Norte by Thu night into Fri, accompanying a cold 
front moving into the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are prevailing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW 
swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of the monsoon
trough off the coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support pulsing strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
particularly at night. Seas will build well offshore of
Guatemala by Wed due to swell generated by gale- force gap winds
in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are
forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will persist through
mid week in a mix of SW and NW swell.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 18N. Fresh to strong
trade winds are noted south of the ridge, mainly from 10N to 25N
west of 110W. Seas in this region are 9 to 12 ft, in a mix of 
locally seas due to the trade wind flow, and longer-period NW 
swell. Combined seas of 7 to 10 ft cover much of the region 
elsewhere west of 110W, although with primarily S to SE swell 
south of 10N. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are 
noted east of 110W. A trough extends across the waters from 
16N109W to 08N111W with scattered moderate convection around it 
from 08N to 16N between 109W and 112W. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will dissipate by Tue into
Wed as a cold front moves eastward across the waters north of 
25N Tue through Thu. This will allow trade winds to diminish 
slightly west of 110W through mid week. Large, long- period NW 
swell accompanying the front will move across the waters north 
of 10N and west of 120W through mid week. This swell will bring 
seas as high as 16 ft north of 25N and west of 130W on Tue. In 
waters east of 110W, the combination of the NW swell with 
shorter- period NE swell emerging from gap wind events and fresh 
E trade winds will support rough seas from 07N to 12N between 95W
and 110W from Thu into Fri.

$$
Christensen