000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass
shows a surge of fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf
Tehuantepec extending downstream to near 15N. A ridge building 
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in 
Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico
supports this new gap wind event. Winds are expected to reach 
minimal gale force mainly at night starting tonight through Wed 
night. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft downstream of the strongest 
winds during the overnight hours. The highest seas are expected
on Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to  
06N95W to 07N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N115W to 09N125W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 08N between 102W and 106W, and from 05N to 
11N W of 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja California
reaching also the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of 
California. The pressure gradient between this system and a 
trough located along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California 
supports fresh to strong NW to N winds inside the Gulf of 
California, mainly S of 28N while is producing mainly moderate 
NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across
the central and southern Gulf of California, and 5 to 7 ft
offshore Baja California. Moderate northerly winds are in the
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. Farther south, light breezes 
persist off southern Mexico, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, besides the gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section above, high
pressure west of Baja California will remain in place through
mid-week while weakening some as a cold front reaches 30N140W. 
Fresh to strong winds will persist mainly in the central Gulf of
California through Mon night. Large and long period NW swell 
will follow the front, building seas up to 15 ft over the NW 
corner of the forecast region by Tue afternoon. This swell event 
will move into the waters off Baja California and the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of Papagayo with
seas of 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere,
with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across and 
well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast
period as high pressure builds north of area. Winds will occasionally
increase to strong speeds at night. Gentle to moderate winds are
forecast elsewhere. Moderate combined seas will persist into 
early this week in a mix of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb located N of area near 32N128W dominates
the waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern supports 
a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 
12 ft, mainly from 09N to 23N west of 125W, and from 12N to 19N 
between 115W and 125W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate 
combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will gradually weaken towards
the middle of the week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly.
A new set of long period NW swell will follow a cold front forecast
to reach near 30N140W late Tue. The front will move across the N
waters through late Wed or early Thu while weakening.

$$
GR