000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030240
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by early Sun afternoon
as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force at 
night Sun night through Wed night. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft 
downstream of the strongest winds during the overnight hours. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N125W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 12N to 14N between 100W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure located near 
32N132W to near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds 
are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California. Recent
altimeter satellite passes confirmed combined seas were 7 to 8 ft
west of Guadalupe Island, likely in NW swell, but mostly 5 to 7
ft elsewhere off Baja California. In the Gulf of California, 
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail in the 
northern and central Gulf while moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds were noted earlier in scatterometer data in the 
southern part of the Gulf and downstream to about 22N where seas 
are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters, light to gentle winds are seen with combined seas of 3 
to 5 ft in primarily Nw swell.

For the forecast, besides the gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section above, 
high pressure centered west of Baja California will shift 
eastward through Mon, allowing fresh to locally strong NW winds 
across the Gulf of California tonight through Mon night, 
particularly over the central part of the Gulf. Meanwhile, large 
NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will 
persist through Mon, then build into mid week as a new group of 
reinforcing NW swell enters the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent ship observation confirmed fresh to strong gap winds
have already started over the Gulf of Papagayo. These gap winds
are active between strong high pressure well north of area and
lower pressure farther south in the tropical Pacific. Seas are 5
to 6 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed,
likely pulsing to fresh to strong overnight into the early
mornings. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. 
Moderate combined seas will persist into early next week in a mix
of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 15N and
west of 110W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes
indicate this pattern supports a large area of fresh to strong 
NE to E winds with seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly from 05N to 25N
west of 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined 
seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. 

$$
Christensen