000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021552
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds will
pulse to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region at 
night Sun through mid week. This is due to a cold front moving 
across the western Gulf of Mexico and into southern Mexico. Seas 
may reach 10 ft downstream of the strongest winds during the 
overnight hours. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N85W 
to 08N100W to 10N115W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 06N and E of 
83W to the coast of Colombia, and from 04N to 11N W of 120W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 
100W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 33N134W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh N winds persist off Baja 
California Norte, between the high pressure and lower pressure 
over northwest Mexico. NW swell of 7 to 9 ft is evident north of 
Punta Eugenia, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over open waters north of
20N. Light breezes and slight seas persist over the Gulf of 
California. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds are noted 
off southern Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed 
swell.

For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to gale-force at night 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue night. 
Farther north, high pressure centered west of Baja California 
will strengthen through Mon, allowing fresh to strong NW winds 
across the Gulf of California Sun through late Mon. Meanwhile, 
large NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will 
persist through Mon, then build into mid week as a new group of 
reinforcing NW swell enters the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
The most recent altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 6 ft in 
this area. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft 
seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. 
Moderate combined seas will persist into early next week in a mix
of SW and NW swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the region north of 15N
producing a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas
of 8 to 11 ft. A broad upper trough extends along 115W with the
base near 10N. Divergent flow aloft combined with convergent 
trade winds are supporting the showers and thunderstorms 
described above along the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. Farther 
south, SE to S swell to 8 ft persists south of the equator 
between 105W and 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate 
combined seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken through early
next week, allowing trade winds to diminish slightly. Reinforcing
NW swell will continue to move into the region west of 120W,
maintaining 8 to 11 ft combined seas. The southerly swell south
of the equator will subside below 8 ft later today. 

$$
GR