000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010859
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 07N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N115W to 
09N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 105W and 110W, and 
within 120 nm in the southeast quadrant of the low pressure near 
09N115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging extends from northwest of the area through Baja
California Sur. The resident trough extends along the Gulf of
California. An altimeter satellite pass from 02 UTC confirmed 8 
to 9 ft combined seas were reaching the waters west of Guadalupe 
Island off Baja California Norte, due to NW swell. An earlier 
ship observation also confirmed fresh winds north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes indicate gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas likely in a mix of swell off 
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, surface ridging extending across Baja California Sur
will shift southward today, supporting fresh breezes and 8 to 10
ft seas in NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro
into Sat. This swell will linger across the far northern Baja 
California offshore waters through into early next week mainly in
waters beyond 90 nm offshore. Farther south, light breezes and 
moderate mixed swell will persist off southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC indicated 
fresh to strong E-NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and 
extending to near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds also extend 
across the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of 
Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle 
offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light 
to gentle SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of
4-7 ft prevail across the area waters in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week, pulsing to strong speeds tonight. Moderate combined 
seas will persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW 
swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active from 13N to 15N
between 105W and 110W. This activity is due to divergent flow
aloft east of an upper trough along 115W. Thunderstorms are also
active within 120 nm of the low pressure embedded along the
monsoon trough near 09N115W. Recent scatterometer satellite
passes indicated fresh to strong SE to S winds near the center of
the low, mainly in the southeast quadrant. Concurrent altimeter
passes confirmed 8 to 9 ft. Farther south, combined seas of 7 to
8 ft are evident south of the equator between 100W and 120W, in
SE swell. Elsewhere east of 120W, gentle to moderate winds 
persist with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in a mix of swell.

West of 120W, the subtropical ridge extends across the waters 
north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 25N. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted N of 25N. Light to gentle winds are
north of 25N, while gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in from 10N to
25N west of 120W due to the impact of the trade winds and NW
swell. Combined seas are also 7 to 9 ft north of 27N between 120W
and 125W in NW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the
area supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 25N through 
the weekend. The low pres along the monsoon trough will dissipate
today. NW swell across the waters from 10N and 25N will continue
to move westward across the waters through the next few days 
while expanding in area. The NW swell impacting waters north of 
27N between 120W and 125W will shift eastward towards the Baja 
California waters over the next few days, lingering through the 
weekend. Swell impacting waters south of the equator will 
subside through Sat.

$$
Christensen