000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010314
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 07N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 08N114W to 
09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 
96W and 98W, from 12N to 14N between 105W and 108W, and within 60
nm of the low pressure near 08N114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging extends from northwest of the area through Baja
California Sur. The resident trough extends along the Gulf of
California. An earlier altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to 9
ft combined seas were reaching the waters west of Guadalupe 
Island off Baja California Norte, due to NW swell. A recent ship 
observation also confirmed fresh winds north of Cabo San Lazaro.
Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes indicate gentle breezes
and moderate combined seas likely in a mix of swell off southern
Mexico. 

For the forecast, surface ridging extending across Baja California Sur
will shift southward through Fri, supporting fresh breezes and 8
to 10 ft seas in NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro into Sat. This swell will linger across the far northern 
Baja California offshore waters through into early next week
mainly in waters beyond 90 nm offshore. Farther south, light 
breezes and moderate SW swell will persist off southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to 
strong E-NE gap winds over the Papagayo region and extending to 
near 92W. Moderate offshore winds extending across the waters 
offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas 
across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle offshore winds 
are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle SW 
winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft 
prevail across the area waters in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
next week, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate combined 
seas will persist into early next week in a mix of SW and NW 
swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted N of 25N. 1008 mb low pressure area along the 
monsoon trough near 09N114W is supporting fresh to strong winds 
from 05N to 11N between 112W and 115W, with seas to 9 ft. Light 
to gentle winds are N of 25N, while gentle to moderate winds are 
noted S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the 
discussion waters W of 120W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range in 
fading NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the
area supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 25N through 
the weekend. The low pres along the monsoon trough will dissipate
by Fri. NW swell across the waters from 12N and 23N will 
continue to move westward across the waters through the next few 
days while expanding in area. The NW swell impacting waters N of
28N between 120W and 125W will shift eastward towards the Baja 
California waters over the next few days, lingering through the 
weekend. Swell impacting waters S of 10N will subside by the 
weekend.

$$
Christensen