000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291609
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale 
conditions over Tehuantepec, with peak seas currently near 12 
ft. The area of high pressure has started to weaken, and will
shift eastward today. This will loosen the pressure gradient,
diminishing winds below gale-force during the next few hours. 
Winds will further decrease through the day, diminishing to 20 kt
or less by early Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 07.7N97W to 08N129W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N129W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is N of 03.5N and E of 83W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N
to 12N between 84W and 96W, and from 05N to 12.5N between 111W
and 127W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 05.5N to 12.5N between 101W and 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 12.5N, with seas 8 to 12 ft in 
this area.

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted N of 17N, including the
southern half of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds 
are elsewhere over the discussion waters. NW swell continues to 
subside across the Baja waters, where seas are in the 5-7 ft
range, except 7 to 7 ft from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon, then
diminish to fresh to strong tonight. Winds and seas will then
diminish considerably Thu morning. High pressure will build 
across the region from the NW beginning this afternoon, with a 
return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja 
offshore waters expected late today through the end of the week.
Strong westerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of 
California tonight. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with
the fresh winds extending to near 90W, and moderate offshore
winds extending across the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua
and the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 8 ft. 
Light to gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted S of
05N. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are elsewhere S of the 
monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the area waters. A 
cluster of strong thunderstorms persists across the near and 
offshore waters south of Panama and Costa Rica, currently E of 
87W, and extend northward across the peninsula and into the SW
Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through midday before diminishing. Moderate W 
to NW swell across the regional waters will continue through Thu.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to persist 
across the near and offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica 
today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the
southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 30N124W to
27N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and the remnant trough of Ramon near 23N129W to 14N128W, as well
as the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds N of the the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 24N and 
west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 25N. Gentle to 
moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell 
dominates the discussion waters W of 100W, with seas in the 8-10 
ft range. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside today. High pressure
to the northwest will begin to build across the region tonight
and Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend.
Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially
higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat.

$$
Stripling