000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery 
through 1450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between 
this area of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon 
trough is supporting minimal gale conditions over Tehuantepec
this morning, with peak seas currently near 12 ft. Strong to 
near gale-force winds will persist through Wed, with gale- force 
winds expected through early Wed. Seas will peak around 13 ft 
this evening and early tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N76W to 09.5N81W to 07N101W 
to 11N111W to low pressure 1011 mb near 10N122W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N124W to beyond 09.5N140W. Numerous strong 
convection is noted from 03.5N to 06.5N E of 85W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N 
between 90W and 122W, and within 30 nm N and 90 nm S of the ITCZ 
W of 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 12.5N, with seas 8 to 11 ft in
this area.

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted over the Gulf of 
California, with locally fresh winds N of 30N. Seas are 3 to 5 
ft through the basin. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail 
elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters N of 23N, 
becoming moderate NE winds S of 23N over the outer portion of 
the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, extending south 
and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. NW swell is beginning to
subside across the Baja waters, where seas are in the 7-8 ft,
except 9 to 10 ft from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of
5-8 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec
region will support strong to near-gale force gap winds over and
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed, with winds to
gale-force expected to continue over these waters through early 
Wed. Large NW swell over the waters west of Baja California, and 
SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, will subside today. High 
pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW on Wed
to bring a return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across 
the Baja offshore waters late Wed through the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Papagayo region this
morning, extending northward across much of the offshore waters
of Nicaragua to near the Gulf of Fonseca. Fresh winds there 
extend downwind of Papagayo to near 91W. Light to gentle offshore
winds are elsewhere north of 12N. Moderate southerly winds are 
noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft
in SW swell prevails across the area waters, except 6-8 ft in 
the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed 
night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Gentle winds south of
the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to locally fresh 
speeds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight.
Moderate W to NW swell will enter the regional waters today and
continue through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1011 mb remnant low of Ramon is near 15N127.5W. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 22N.
Light to gentle winds are N of 24N. A weakening cold front
extends across the far NW waters from 30N132W to 28N140W, with
moderate N to NE winds behind it. Gentle to moderate winds are 
found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the 
discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the 9-11 ft range. Seas
of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside very slowly, with 
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 110W 
through tonight before subsiding more quickly through Wed. High 
pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the region 
by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend. 

$$
Stripling