000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary 
over the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
has tightened the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. 
The pressure gradient is supporting minimal gale conditions over 
the Gulf. Strong to near gale-force winds will persist through 
Wed, with gale- force winds expected through Tue night. Seas will
peak around 13 ft with this event. Please read the latest HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 08N92W to 10N112W to
10N125W. The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 18N between 95W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 10N between 115W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale- force gap wind event. 

Elsewhere, moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of California,
where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds over the outer portion of 
the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, just to the south 
and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 8-10 ft 
range in NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, 
extending SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Active convection 
persists across the offshore waters of SW Mexico between Guerrero
and Jalisco, ahead of an eastward moving upper level trough 
extending from Baja California Sur southwestward into the 
tropical Pacific.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near- gale force gap winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed, with winds to gale- 
force over these waters through Tue night. Large NW swell over 
the waters west of Baja California, and SW to the Revillagigedo 
Islands, will start to subside tonight. High pressure will begin 
to build across the region from the NW on Wed to bring a return 
to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore 
waters late Wed through the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with 
fresh winds extending downwind of the Gulf to near 90W. Light to
gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon
trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except 5-7 ft in the Papagayo 
region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed 
night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Gentle winds south of
the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to locally fresh 
speeds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight through 
Tue night. Moderate W to NW swell will move through the regional 
waters Tue through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1010 mb remnant low of Ramon is near 14N127W. Fresh winds 
are noted within 45 nm the NE semicircle of the low. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N.
Light to gentle winds are N of 23N. Gentle to moderate winds are
found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the 
discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the 9-11 ft range. 
Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside very slowly, with 
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 110W 
through Tue evening before subsiding more quickly through Wed. 
High pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the 
region by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the 
weekend. 

$$
AL