000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260246 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ramon is centered near 14.8N 122.7W at 26/0300 UTC, moving west at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft within 30 nm in the northern semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm northeast semicircle. Ramon is forecast to start a weakening trend overnight, becoming a remnant low in a day or two, with the low opening up into a trough not long after that. The system is forecast to drift slowly tonight, with a faster westward to west-northwestward motion expected to begin Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area early next week, with gale conditions expected Mon night through Tue night. Seas will peak near 12 ft with this upcoming event. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 09N102W to 10N107W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 82W and 100W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and off the coast of southern and SW Mexico. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range off Baja California Norte, 5-6 ft off Baja California Sur, and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 2-3 ft range, except reaching 4 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast aside from the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event, NW swell over the far offshore waters off Baja California Norte will reach the waters off Cabo San Lazaro early Sun, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will follow a weak cold front moving into the northern Gulf of California, which will stall and dissipate Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Light winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds are noted between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night across and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through the period. Winds may reach strong speeds early next week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the monsoon trough through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more information on Tropical Storm Ramon. Gentle to moderate winds persist outside of Ramon, except for moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west of 135W. NW swell continues to move into the waters mainly to the northwest of a line from off Baja California Norte to near 05N140W. Southerly cross-equatorial swell is noted farther south, mainly south of 08N, supporting combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward through the weekend. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters west of 120W into early next week. Winds and seas associated with Ramon are expected to cover a relatively small and localized area, with seas mixing with longer period NW swell. $$ AL