000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230216
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a gale- force gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas are currently
near 13 ft. The area of high pressure will start to slowly 
weaken and shift eastward overnight. This will loosen the 
pressure gradient with winds diminishing below gale- force early 
Thu morning, and further diminishing through the day. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N113W to 1007 mb low
pressure near 12N121W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 02N to 08N between 82W and 88W, and from 05N to 11N
between 112W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of

See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale-
force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region.

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the Baja
California peninsula and a 1009 mb low pressure off Mazatlan, 
Mexico is supporting fresh NE winds across the Gulf of 
California. Wave heights remain generally 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf 
of California due to limited fetch across the width of the basin.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the Baja
California peninsula, with light to gentle winds over the
remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range.  

For the forecast, gale-force gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue into early Thu morning, with winds 
steadily diminishing through Thu night. NW swell will move into 
the far offshore waters off Baja California, reaching Guadalupe 
Island by late Fri, the waters off Cabo San Lazaro Sun, and the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Mon. A weak cold front will approach the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte by Sun, supporting 
moderate to fresh SW winds over the northern Gulf of California 
Sun and Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are over and downwind the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with light winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Light to gentle winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
8-10 ft are well offshore Guatemala in northerly swell generated 
by the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event, 
with seas of 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, swell generated by an ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will impact the waters well offshore 
western Guatemala through late Thu. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough or S of 07N through Sun when 
winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. Moderate to fresh 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1007 mb low pressure (Invest EP94) is embedded within the
monsoon trough near 12N121W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm of the low. Elsewhere moderate to 
fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 
120W, with seas of 6-9 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 
4 to 6 ft seas are noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the 
next couple of days while it drifts generally northward. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development over the weekend. Elsewhere, swell will diminish 
through late Thu. A new round of NW swell will enter the waters 
with 8 to 12 ft combined seas covering much of the area west of 
120W. 

$$
AL