000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico and extends from the Florida Big Bend area to the Bay of Campeche this morning. Strong high pressure building behind the front is supporting very strong to gale force northerly winds in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, which are funneling through the Chivela Pass of the Tehuantepec Isthmus in southern Mexico. Near-gale force winds are being reported at Coatzacoalcos, Mexico on the northern entrance to the Tehuantepec Isthmus. This is leading to an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is expected to continue through early Thu morning. Peak seas are 12 ft and are expected to reach around 15 ft today. On Thu, gap winds will gradually diminish through the day and then more quickly Thu evening with seas subsiding below 8 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N110W to low pressure near 11N120W 1007 mb to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 118W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... set of See the Special Features Section for details on an ongoing gale- force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted this morning associated with a small, 1008 mb low pressure area off Mazatlan, Mexico, near the southern entrances to the Gulf of California. The gradient between the low pressure and higher pressure over the northeast Pacific is supporting fresh NE winds across the Gulf of California. Wave heights remain generally 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California due to limited fetch across the width of the basin. Some of the winds are penetrating lower lying gaps in the terrain over the Baja California peninsula, mainly south of Punta Eugenia, supporting shorter-period NE wind waves mixing with longer-period NW swell to create combined seas of 5 to 7 ft off Baja California. For the forecast, fresh NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will continue through this morning, then winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Thu night and to light to gentle speeds early Fri through Sun night. The fresh winds in the Gulf of California will slowly diminish to gentle to moderate speeds early on Thu. New NW swell with seas in excess of 8 ft will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri afternoon and propagate SE to the Baja Sur waters through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters N of 07N while gentle to moderate S to SW are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 07N and 5-7 ft S of 07N, including the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, as a weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Caribbean. For the forecast, swell generated by an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the waters well offshore western Guatemala through late Thu. Winds will remain gentle to moderate S of the monsoon trough or S of 07N through Sun when winds will diminish to light to gentle speeds. In the Gulf of Papagayo, NE winds of moderate to fresh speeds will pulse through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1007 mb low pressure (Invest EP94) is embedded within the monsoon trough near 11N120W, and is drifting northward. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm of the low. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next few days, and become less conducive for development by this weekend or early next week. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N and W of 130W where altimeter data show seas in the 5 to 10 ft range. Otherwise, NW swell continues to propagate through the NW open waters in association with a stationary front just NW of the area. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. For the forecast, the NW swell over the northwest waters will propagate SE to raise seas to 10 ft before subsiding Thu evening. New northerly swell will start propagating across the northern waters Fri and prevail through the weekend. Invest EP94 is expected to drift northward over the next few days and maintain seas around 8 ft within 60 nm in the northern semicircle of the low. $$ Christensen