000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192028
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 12N97W to 10N115W to
06N130. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 98W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N 
between 105W and 128W, and from 01N to 07N between 132W and 
140W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore Baja California. Fresh to 
strong NW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula. 
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the southern half of the 
Gulf of California. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 
in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-4
ft are found over the southern Gulf of California, with 1-3 ft 
seas over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NNW winds W of Baja 
California will continue through late tonight. Northwest swell 
will enter the waters west of Baja California tonight into Mon. 
Localized fresh to strong NE gap winds are expected along the 
west coast of central Baja California Mon afternoon through Tue 
night. The entire Gulf of California can expect strong northwest 
to north- northwest winds early this week, along with rough seas.
The next gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
is likely the middle of the week before diminishing Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of 10B, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail over the discussion 
waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N
through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds are expected offshore
Costa Rica today. Winds will diminish tonight into early next 
week under a weak pressure pattern. Swell generated by the
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may enter the waters
well offshore western Guatemala late Wed through early Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb (Invest EP94) is embedded within the 
monsoon trough near 10N117.5W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
found in the vicinity of the low, with seas to 8 ft. Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next couple of 
days while it drifts westward. By the middle of the week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 19N126W to 11N126W. 
Fresh to locally strong NNE winds and seas to 8 ft are found 
within 120 nm west of the trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate 
winds are south of the monsoon trough Seas of 6-8 ft prevail 
across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, the fresh northeast trade winds will gradually
diminish Mon. A new set of northerly swell will propagate 
through the waters north of 24N and east of 129W on Mon. Seas 
will gradually subside through mid-week. A weakening cold front 
will approach 30N140W early this week. Northwest swell with this 
front will move into the far northwest waters starting Mon night.

$$
AL