000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to
12N101W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N116.5W (Invest EP94) to 
06N128W. The ITCZ extends from 06N128W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N between 77W and
98W, from 04N to 11N between 112W and 127W, and from 02N to 06.5N
between 131W and 139W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is offshore Baja California. A recent ASCAT
satellite pass shows fresh to strong NW winds over the southern
half of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft are across this 
part of the Gulf. In the northern half of the Gulf, light to
gentle winds prevail along with seas of 1-3 ft. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13.5N, 
where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NW to NNW winds are
likely occurring within 180 nm west of the coast of Baja 
California Sur with seas to 7 ft. Offshore Baja California 
Norte, moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds prevail with 5-7 ft 
seas. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft 
over the offshore waters between Jalisco and Guerrero.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh this morning, then
to gentle to moderate by this afternoon. West of Baja California,
fresh to strong NNW winds will continue through late tonight. 
Large northwest swell will enter the waters west of Baja 
California tonight into Mon. Localized fresh to strong NE gap
winds are expected along the west coast of central Baja
California Mon afternoon through Tue night. The entire Gulf of 
California can expect strong northwest to north-northwest winds 
early Mon morning through Tue, along with rough seas. Looking 
ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is likely Tue night through Wed night. On Thu and 
Thu night, the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds should gradually 
diminish to strong.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are occurring offshore 
of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, mostly gentle winds are occurring. 
Most areas are experiencing seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N through Tue night. Moderate southwest winds will continue 
offshore Costa Rica through today. Winds will diminish tonight 
into early next week under a weak pressure pattern. Looking
ahead, large N swell may enter the waters well offshore western
Guatemala late Wed through early Thu due to a gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb (Invest EP94) is centered along the 
monsoon trough near 10N116.5W. Satellite imagery shows that
convection collapsed overnight. Disorganized scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 04.5N to 11N between 112W and 120.5W. 
Fresh winds and seas of 8 ft are associated with the low. 
Development, if any, of this system would be slow to occur while 
it moves generally westward during the next few days. By the 
middle of next week, environmental conditions are forecast to 
become less conducive for development.

A persistent surface trough extends from 21N120W to 16N123W to
13N122W. Fresh NNE winds and seas to 8 ft are found within 240 nm
west of the trough axis. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon
trough with seas of 7-9 ft. ASCAT shows fresh NE to E winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate 
winds prevail north of 23N with 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh northeast trade winds will expand in 
areal coverage this morning across most of the area north of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough as high pressure builds back across the
region. These winds will persist through tonight before 
gradually diminishing Mon. A new set of large northerly swell 
will begin to propagate through the waters north of 24N and east 
of 129W on Mon. It will gradually decay going into mid-week. A 
cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner of 
the area late on Mon, but is expected to be weakening as it does.
Northwest swell associated with this front may encroach into the
far northwest waters starting Mon night. 

$$
Hagen