000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N101W to 1010 mb low
pres near 10N114W to 12N119W to 1012 mb low pres near 10.5N137W 
to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 106W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 113W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are currently 
strong to near-gale force to the north of 13N, with seas of 8 to
11 ft. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered along the coast of 
Baja California Norte near 30N116W. Recent ASCAT satellite data 
shows light to gentle winds offshore Baja California, to the 
north of Cabo San Lazaro, underneath the high pressure center. 
Moderate N winds are near the coast, to the south of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail west of Baja California, in NW 
swell. In the southern and central Gulf of California, moderate 
to fresh NW winds are likely occurring, where seas are 3-6 ft. 
Gentle winds are over the northern Gulf of California with 1 to 
2 ft seas. Gentle W to NW winds prevail elsewhere offshore 
between Jalisco and Guerrero, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish slightly this morning, but fresh to strong N winds will
continue through Sat night before diminishing early Sun. NW 
swell across the Baja California offshore waters will gradually 
subside through Sat. The pressure gradient between high pressure 
just west of Baja California and lower pressure over northern 
Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds across central and
southern portions of the Gulf of California through Sun, except 
for fresh to strong this afternoon through tonight. These winds 
will then expand into northern portions of the Gulf of California
and increase to fresh to strong Sun night through Tue. West of 
Baja California, NW to N winds will increase to fresh Sat 
afternoon, then increase to fresh to strong Sun through Sun 
night. Looking ahead, the next gale-force gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible during the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted offshore
Costa Rica from 07N to 10N between 83.5W and 88W. Recent ASCAT
satellite data show fresh SW winds occurring within this area of
convection. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere 
south of the monsoon trough, moderate SW winds are ongoing with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle winds prevail N of 09N, along with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N 
through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds will
continue offshore Panama and Costa Rica through Sat, with seas
to 8 ft continuing through tonight. Winds will diminish 
thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough is centered near
10N114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 09N to 11N between 113W and 116W. Recent ASCAT data shows 25
to 30 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or
two as the disturbance moves generally westward. After that 
time, environmental conditions are forecast to become less 
conducive for further development. There is a low chance of 
tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends southward from a large low pressure
system north of the area from 30N129W to 26N131W, and then 
westward to 24N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are east of the 
trough, north of 26N between 124W and 131W. Fresh W to NW winds 
are west of the trough axis. Large seas of 9 to 11 ft in NW to N
swell are ongoing over the open waters N of 06N and W of 120W. 
Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 24N120W to a low 
pressure of 1011 mb near 15N122W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is near and east of the surface trough. 
Moderate N winds are W of the trough. Seas are 9 to 10 ft in the
vicinity of the through in NW swell. South of the monsoon trough
and E of 120W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail with seas
7 to 9 ft in mixed SE and NW swell.

For the forecast, the large NW to N swell covering the area from
06N to 30N between 120W and 140W will gradually subside as it 
spreads southward, bringing seas of 8 to 10 ft tonight between 
the Equator and 15N, west of 110W. Meanwhile, the low north of 
the area and surface trough will continue to bring fresh to 
strong winds north of 26N between 123W and 137W through this
evening, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the area persisting 
through tonight before subsiding. NE trade winds will increase a
bit to fresh late Sat through Sun night across most of the area 
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ as high pressure builds back 
across the region.

$$
Hagen