000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large area of high seas...Large NW to N swell, generated by complex low pressure and an associated frontal system across the NE Pacific, continue to propagate southeastward into the open NW waters of the discussion area. Seas in the 12 ft to 14 ft range are ongoing N of 12N and W of 124W. This area in excess of 12 ft seas will begin to gradually subside this evening. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to low pressure near 09N112W 1010 mb to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 81W and 96W, and from 04N to 11N between 120W and 137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer pass earlier this afternoon indicated that winds in the Tehuantepec region are below gale force, however fresh to near gale force N to NE persist reaching as far as 08N. Seas have also subside and currently peak to 10 ft. Weak high pressure across Baja California Norte supports light to gentle variable winds across the Baja Peninsula offshore zones. However, high pressure over the Great Basin and SW U.S.A. is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the central and southern Gulf of California, including the entrance of the gulf. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail across the Baja offshore waters while seas to 5 ft are along the Gulf of California, being the peak seas at the entrance of the gulf. Elsewhere across the SW Mexican waters, winds are light to gentle with seas to 5 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, NW swell propagating across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will reach the Baja Sur waters by this evening then gradually subside across the area through Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Basin and low pressure along western Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California today through Sun, then expand into north portions and increase to fresh to strong Sun evening through Mon night. High pressure will build across the Baja offshore waters Sat afternoon through Sun to bring a return to moderate to fresh northerly winds. Strong to near gale force winds will gradually diminisg through Thu morning. Fresh to strong N winds will resume in Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun before the next gale force gap wind event forecast to begin late Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Elsewhere, moderate SW to W winds are ongoing south of the monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, where S winds are gentle to moderate, with 6 to 8 ft seas in S-SW swell across the area. For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through the weekend producing seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas are expected to remain 7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala into this afternoon due to the extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are expected to diminish modestly area-wide Sat through early next week as broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front continues to move across the NW waters extending from 30N132W to 24N138W. A narrow band of moderate S to SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 25N reaching to 123W, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW to N swell. Fresh NW to W winds follow the front with seas in the 12 to 14 ft range. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N120W to just north of low pressure of 1011 mb near 16N122W. Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the trough, with seas of 7 to 9 ft mainly W of the trough axis. South of 10N, moderate S to SW winds prevail with southerly swell supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE and NW swell. For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 120W today. Very large seas in excess of 12 ft have spread SE and far E as 124W, and will gradually subside through tonight. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central waters will slowly subside, ahead of the large NW swell dominating the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade winds will start to increase this weekend as high pressure builds back across the region. $$ Ramos