000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152142
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across
Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, behind a slow moving cold
front across the central Gulf of Mexico, will continue to 
support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec through tonight. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec 
are expected to fluctuate between 8 and 12 ft through tonight,
then begin to diminish Thu morning to below 12 ft. NW seas 
generated across Tehuantepec will spread into the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala, where seas will remain 7 to 10 ft through 
late tonight. Strong gap winds, and associated seas, will 
gradually diminish Thu into the weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N100W to low 
pressure of 1010 mb near 13N123W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 77W and 87W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
90 nm of the monsoon trough between 116W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure just offshore of Baja Norte supports light to
gentle variable winds across the water north of 20N, except the 
entrance to the Gulf of California, where moderate N to NW winds 
prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail across the Baja 
offshore waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of 
California, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. Elsewhere,
winds are light to gentle and seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, new NW swell will propagate into the Baja 
California waters today through Thu night, raising seas to 6 to 
9 ft. A cold front across the open NW waters along 125W will 
move slowly E-SE and reach near 122W by tonight before 
dissipating. Another cold front is expected to drift to 122W,
by Sat. High pressure will then build eastward across the area 
through the weekend, and strengthen bring a return to moderate 
to fresh northerly winds N of 20N.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 08N, along with seas of 5-7 
ft, except well offshore Guatemala where seas are 8 to 10 ft in 
NW swell due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap 
winds. Elsewhere, moderate SW to W winds are ongoing south of 
the monsoon trough, except over the Galapagos Islands, where 
winds are light to gentle, with 5 to 8 ft seas in S-SW swell
across the area.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse briefly
tonight in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail elsewhere N of 09N through the forecast period. 
Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters 
through the weekend producing seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas are 
expected to remain 7 to 10 ft in NW swell across the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala into Thu due to the extended period 
of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. Winds and seas are 
expected to diminish modestly Sat through early next week as 
broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean lifts NE and away from
the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front continues to move slowly across the NW waters 
extending from 30N125W to 17N140W. A narrow band of fresh to
strong S to SW winds is found ahead of the front to the N of 
25N reaching to 120W with seas in the 10 to 12 ft range in NW to
N swell. Fresh to strong NW to W winds follow the front with 
seas in the 12 to 20 ft range. 

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 25N121W to just north 
of broad low pressure of 1010 mb near 13N123W. Moderate to fresh
winds are on either side of the trough, with seas of 7 to 9 ft 
mainly east of the trough axis. A weakening high pressure ridge 
dominates the remainder of the waters between N of 20N and E of 
120W, and is supporting moderate or less winds with seas to 7 ft.
South of 10N, moderate SE winds prevail with southerly swell 
supporting 6 to 8 ft seas in SE swell.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move E-SE through
tonight, then stall and weaken in the vicinity of 122W Thu. Very
large seas in excess of 12 ft will gradually spread SE and reach
as far E as 125W by tonight before seas gradually subside 
through Thu night. Elsewhere, seas of 8-9 ft across the W-central
waters will slowly subside, ahead of the expected large NW swell
entering the NW waters. Looking ahead, trade winds will start to
increase this weekend as high pressure builds back across the 
region.

$$
CM/NR