074 AXPZ20 KNHC 131534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through mid-week. Sustained winds will fluctuate and may diminish just below gale force during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to reach near 12 ft tonight, and near 14 ft Tue afternoon and night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue into Wed night. Gales are expected to end Wed night, with strong gap winds then gradually diminishing through the end of the week. Gale Warning NW waters...deepening low pressure across the NE Pacific will move southward through Tue, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters this afternoon through early Tue, reaching near 131W by Tue morning. As the supporting low pressure center approaches 32N Tue, strong to gale-force NW winds will move into the far NW waters midday Tue through afternoon, before diminishing below gale-force Tue night. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will immediately follow the cold front, and reach as far S as 15N by Thu, with peak seas building to over 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue through early Wed, then shifting slowly eastward to 130W through Wed afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 08N98W. The ITCZ extends from 08N98W to 12N111W, then again from 11N120W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 105W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the trough between 90W and 98W and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 29N127W and extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. This is causing only gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and gentle to moderate N winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 18N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds N of 20N will remain light to gentle through Wed as weak high pressure persists NW of the area. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters through the week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move near the Baja Norte waters late Thu and stall there through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight then diminish through mid- week as broad low pressure develops across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through mid- week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through Thu producing seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala Tue into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 29N127W and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 117W. A modest pressure gradient exists across these waters, producing moderate to locally fresh trades from 09N to 23N and W of about 117W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. A 1008 mb low center is noted near 14N119W and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly through Tue night ahead of the approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach from near 30N131W to 22N140W by Tue morning, and from near 30N130W to 20N140W by Wed morning. Seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the W-central waters through early Mon, then slowly subside through Tue, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into Tue before subsiding. $$ KONARIK