000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130933 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure persisting across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to support gale-force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through mid-week, behind a slow moving cold front currently across the western Gulf of Mexico. Sustained winds will fluctuate and may diminish just below gale force during the late morning and early afternoon hours Mon. Peak seas downwind of Tehuantepec are expected to reach near 12 ft Mon night, and near 14 ft Tue afternoon and night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue through Wed evening. Gales are expected to end late Wed evening, with strong gap winds then gradually diminishing through the end of the work week. Gale Warning NW waters...deepening low pressure across the NE Pacific will move southward Mon through Tue, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon through early Tue, reaching near 131W by Tue morning. As the supporting low pressure center approaches 32N Tue, strong to gale-force NW winds will move into the far NW waters midday Tue through afternoon, before diminishing below gale-force Tue night. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will immediately follow the cold front, and reach as far S as 15N by Thu, with peak seas building to 20 ft and greater across the far NW waters early Tue through early Wed, then shifting slowly eastward to 130W through Wed afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 10.5N83W to 07.5N93W to low pres near 12N112W. The ITCZ extends from near 12N119W to 07.5N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 09.5N E of 86W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 106W and 111W, within 120 nm either side of trough between 90W and 100W, and within 120 nm N of ITCZ between 120W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 1020 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area, near 30N127W, and extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across NW Mexico is producing only gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and gentle to moderate N winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 18N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds across the Mexican offshore waters NW of Puerto Angel will generally remain light to gentle through Wed as weak high pressure persists NW of the area. Moderate northerly winds are expected from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Manzanillo Tue afternoon and night. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters throughout the coming week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move near the Baja Norte waters late Thu and stall there through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 08N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight then diminish through mid-week as broad low pressure develops across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 08N through mid-week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue across the area waters through Thu producing seas of 4 to 7 ft basin-wide. Seas are expected to build to 8-plus ft well offshore Guatemala Tue into Thu due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning issued for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N127W, and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 117W. A modest pressure gradient across these waters, producing moderate to locally fresh trades from 09N to 23N and W of about 117W. Seas of 8-9 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell prevail across those waters. A 1007 mb low center is noted near 14N118W, and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish slightly through Tue night ahead of the approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach from near 30N131W to 22N140W by Tue morning, and from near 30N130W to 20N140W by Wed morning. Seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the W-central waters through early Mon, then slowly subside through Tue, ahead of the expected large NW swell entering the NW waters. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into Tue before subsiding. $$ Stripling