000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122030 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building S into NE Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will support gale force gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehunatepec through mid- week. Sustained winds may pulse to 40 kt each night through at least Tue night. Seas of 8 to 10 ft may reach 12 ft Mon, and peak near 14 ft Tue and Tue night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue through Wed. Gales are expected to end late Wed night, with the strong gap winds gradually diminishing through the end of the work week. Gale Warning NW Pacific waters...deepening low pressure will develop across the NE Pacific by Mon and move SSE, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon to produce fresh to near gale force NW winds Mon afternoon through Wed, with winds reaching gale- force across the far NW waters Tue. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, with seas building to around 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue, then shifting slowly eastward through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to low pressure near 09N105W. The ITCZ extends from just past low pressure near 12N115W to 08N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 79W, from 08N to 13N between 85W and 92W, from 06N to 11N between 92W and 109W, and from 07N to 10N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across NW Mexico is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and mainly moderate N-NW winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. For the forecast, fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish from S to N tonight. Gentle to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish tonight as high pressure weakens NW of the area. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters through the coming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 09N, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight then diminish into mid-week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 09N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 09N through early week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of 09N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft basin- wide today into early week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue through Wed due to an extended period of Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning issued for the far NW waters in association with a strong cold front early this week. High pressure of 1025 mb is centered N of the area near 35N132W, and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure gradient is across these waters W of 120W, with moderate fresh trades from 10N to 23N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell are across those waters. A 1007 mb low center is noted near 12N117W, and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 240 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish some into Mon. Seas of 8-10 ft will persist across the W-central waters today, then decay gradually tonight. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into early week. $$ KONARIK