000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure continues to build southward across northeastern Mexico, behind a cold front that is moving very slowly across the western Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to reach the central Bay of Campeche this afternoon. The high pressure behind the front has recently forced gale- force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with these winds expected to persist through Wed night, with minor fluctuations. The front is expected to shift slightly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Tue through Wed with winds increasing to near 40 kt across Tehuantepec at that time. Seas will build to near 11 ft just downwind of Tehuantepec this afternoon then to near 12 ft Mon through Wed night. Seas may peak near 14 ft Tue night. NW seas generated across Tehuantepec will move into the outer offshore waters of Guatemala, where seas will build to 7 to 10 ft Tue through Wed. Gales are expected to end late Wed night, with the strong gap winds gradually diminishing through the end of the work week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11N82W to low pressure near 09N105W to low pressure near 12N115W to 08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 08.5N E of 79.5W, from 07.5N to 13N between 84.5W and 92W, from 05.5N to 11N between 92W and 109W, from 09N to 10.5N between 120W and 123W, and from 07N to 10N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning in association with gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across NW Mexico is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 20N, and moderate to fresh N-NW winds throughout the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail in mainly NW swell across the Baja offshore waters. However new NW swell has entered the outer waters of Baja Norte raising seas to 8 ft. Seas are 3-6 ft inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S-SW and NW swell. Strong to gale-force N gap winds have developed across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend S to 13.5N, where seas are presently 7-10 ft. For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds will generally prevail through Wed night, with modest fluctuations, as a cold front moves very slowly across the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 12 ft late Mon and increase to around 14 ft Tue and Tue night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish from S to N today. Gentle to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish today into early next week as high pressure weakens NW of the area. A series of pulses of NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters through the coming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 09N, along with seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail to the south of the monsoon trough, along 09N, where seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sun night then diminish into mid-week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of 09N with mainly moderate S to SW winds to the S of 09N through early next week. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build across the waters N of 09N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft basin- wide today into early next week. Looking ahead, seas may build to around 8 ft well offshore Guatemala Tue through Wed due to an extended Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is centered N of the area near 35N132W, and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward that dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A fairly tight pressure gradient is across these waters W of 120W, with fresh trades from 10N to 23N and W of about 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE wind waves and NW swell are across those waters. A 1007 mb low center is noted near 12N115W, and is moving westward. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge to the NW is producing fresh NE winds within 300 nm across the NW quadrant of the low. Seas are 8-9 ft in this quadrant. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N of the 23N and W of 120W. Southerly swell supports seas of 7-9 ft from S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the Equator. For the forecast, the fresh trades will diminish some into Mon. Seas of 8-10 ft will persist across the W-central waters today, then decay gradually tonight. The southerly swell around 8 ft will linger from 06N southward across the Equator into early week. Looking ahead, deepening low pressure will develop across the NE Pacific by Mon and move SSE, and remain just N of the area waters. Ahead of the low, a strong cold front will sink into the NW waters Mon afternoon to produce fresh to near gale force NW winds Mon afternoon through Wed, possible reaching gale- force across the far NW waters Tue. Associated seas in excess of 12 ft will accompany the increasing winds, with seas building to around 20 ft across the far NW waters early Tue, then shifting slowly eastward through Wed. $$ KONARIK