000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to near 08.5N95W to low pres near 14.5N112W 1007 mb to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N E of 83W, from 05.5N to 11N between 95W and 103W, and from 10N to 16N between 107W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 122W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure remains centered NW of the area and extends a broad ridge SE across the Baja California waters. Recent scatterometer data showed gentle N to NW winds across the offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, except moderate winds within 90 nm of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail, except 4 to 6 ft near the coast. Inside the Gulf of California, a tighter pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh N-NW winds and seas to 6 ft N of 29N, and seas of 4 to 5 ft across the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate NW winds are ongoing at the entrance of the gulf and extend to the offshore waters of Jalisco and Cabo Corrientes, where seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell are in the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters. Isolated clusters of thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm to the SW of Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere to the N, skies are mostly clear. For the forecast, moderate northerly winds will continue across the Baja California offshore waters offshore of Punta Eugenia through Sat night before veering N to NE and diminishing area- wide Sun through early next week, as high pressure weakens NW of the region. New NW swell will enter the Baja Norte waters on Sat and reach the Baja Sur waters by early Sun. Moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of California will persist through Sat evening, then diminish across south and central portions Sat night and Sun, and across northern portions late Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sat as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico, and expand and increase to near gale-force Sat night through Sun. Gale conditions are forecast to begin Sun evening and may continue through at least mid- week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gaps winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell are noted across the rest of the Central America offshore waters and offshore Colombia. South of the monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S-SW winds are ongoing along with 6 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure will prevail across the SW Caribbean and Central America through the middle of next week. Moderate NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse to fresh speeds each night through Mon night, then diminish through mid week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will diminish to moderate speeds on Fri and prevail through mid-week. Seas will generally remain in the 4 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell through mid week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located N of the area straddles a stalling cold front that extends from near 34N130W to 31.5N140W. The associated broad ridge covers the area waters W of 110W to the Hawaiian Islands, and of producing a large area of fresh to locally strong trade winds S of 24N and W of 120W. NW swell moving through the regional waters N of 10N is merging with the NE trade wind waves to create a large area of 8 to 10 ft seas from 10N to 28N and W of 115W, with peak seas to 11 ft. South of the ITCZ winds are moderate with seas 7 to 8 ft. A 1007 mb low near 14.5N112W is generating scattered moderate to strong convection in its vicinity, supported by a broad upper level trough across the region. Otherwise, southerly swell continues to move into the southern forecast waters, S of 10N between 100W and 140W. For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the waters N of 08N and W of 120W over the next few days, while the weakening cold front to the N drifts southward to along 30N by Sat night. This will support fresh to strong trade winds through Sat morning. Winds will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh late Sat into Sun as the high pressure weakens considerably across the northern forecast waters. By early next week, winds will become gentle to moderate over most of the area. Current NW swell dominating waters N of 20N will begin to subside Sat night through Sun before new NW swell will move into the northern waters Sun night and Mon, associated with deep low pressure across the NE Pacific and a strong cold front. Fresh to near gale force NW winds and seas in excess of 12 ft will move into the NW waters Mon night through Tue night, with seas expected to peak around 20 ft Tue afternoon and evening. Otherwise, southerly swell will subside S of 02N through the weekend. $$ Stripling