000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to near 08N78W to 09.5N86W to 07.5N97W, then resumes from near 16N108W to low pres near 15N111W 1007 mb to 10.5N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 83W, and from 05N to 09N between 116W and 130W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N between 96W and 106W, and within 150 nm either side of trough between 107.5W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1026 mb high pressure remains centered NW of the area near 32N134W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California waters. Afternoon scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate N to NW winds along the peninsula offshore waters, and continue this evening. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail. In the Gulf of California, a tighter pressure gradient is leading to the continuation of fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas to 6 ft N of 27.5N, and moderate to fresh winds and seas 3 to 4 ft across the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate NW winds are ongoing at the entrance of the gulf and extend to the offshore waters of Jalisco and Cabo Corrientes, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 6 ft in mixed swell are in the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate northerly winds will continue across the Baja California offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat night before diminishing area-wide Sun through early next week, as high pressure weakens NW of the region. New NW swell will enter the Baja Norte waters on Sat and reach the Baja Sur waters Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the Gulf of California will diminish tonight then remain moderate to fresh through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are forecast to begin Sun and may continue through at least mid- week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gaps winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in S to SW swell are noted across the rest of the Central America offshore waters and offshore Colombia. South of the monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to fresh S-SW winds are ongoing along with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure will prevail across the SW Caribbean and Central America through the beginning of next week. Moderate NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh speeds each night through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Fri and prevail through mid-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located N of the area near 32N134W extends a broad ridge across the northern forecast waters W of 114W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and the remnants of Pilar supports a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 118W. A large area of NW swell is moving through this same area of fresh winds, producing seas of 8 to 11 ft. South of the ITCZ winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas to 8 ft. A 1007 mb low is near 15N111W generating scattered moderate to strong convection in its vicinity. Otherwise, southerly swell continues to move into the southern forecast waters, S of 08N between 100W and 134W. For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the waters N of 08N and W of 120W over the next few days. This will support fresh to strong trade winds through Sat morning. Winds will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh late Sat into Sun as a weakening front approaches the northern forecast waters. By early next week, winds will become gentle to moderate over most of the area. Current NW swell dominating waters N of 20N will begin to subside Sun when new NW swell will move across the NW waters associated with the weakening cold front. A third swell event will begin Mon behind a strong cold front carrying fresh to near gale force NW winds and seas in excess of 12 ft behind it. Otherwise, southerly swell will subside S of 00N through the weekend. $$ Stripling