000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N84W to 09N96W to low pres near 14N109W 1010 mb to 12N116W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is note from 10N to 17N between 
106W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
12N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure located well N of the area extends a ridge 
across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along W 
Mexico continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California, except for strong winds 
in the offshore waters S of Cabo San Lucas and the Gulf of
California where seas are around 8 ft. Northwest swell with seas
to 10 ft continue to spread SE across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle variable winds are ongoing elsewhere 
in the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in mixed 
swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the 
Baja California offshore waters will prevail through Sat, where
winds will be gentle to moderate through Sun. The NW swell event
will continue across the waters W of Baja California through Thu
night before subsiding below 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong 
northerly winds will continue along the Gulf of California 
through Thu night, diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds Fri 
and continuing through late Sun. Looking ahead, the next 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected during the upcoming 
weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Gale 
conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 
ft are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. 
South of the monsoon trough and in the offshore waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S-SW winds 
prevail along with 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu morning and again during the 
weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere in
the Central America offshore waters through the weekend. Gentle 
to moderate S-SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through late Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure located N of the area extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N W of 
114W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure 
associated with the ITCZ and the remnants of Pilar supports a 
broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 29N
and W of 115W. A large area of NW swell is within this same area
of fresh winds along with 8 to 10 ft seas per recent altimeter 
data. South of the ITCZ between 110W and 130W, moderate to fresh 
SE winds are noted with 7 to 9 ft seas. A 1010 mb low pressure, 
former T.S. Pilar, is located near 15N123W with no convection at
the time. However, a 1010 mb low near 14N109W is generating 
scattered moderate convection in its vicinity. Otherwise, 
southerly swell continues to move into the southern forecast 
waters, S of 03N between 106W and 120W. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through Fri night. Winds
will begin to diminish to moderate to locally fresh on Sat into
Sun. The NW swell event will begin to subside slightly by Thu 
until a new swell set enters the waters by the weekend. Southerly
swell will spread northward through the weekend. The swell will 
reach as far north as 03N bringing seas of 8 to 9 ft.

$$
AReinhart