315 
AXPZ20 KNHC 080344
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W
to 12N114W. The ITCZ extends from 07N124W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between
105W and 130W and from 05N to 10N and W of 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and downwind to about 15N. Seas are up to 6 ft within these 
winds. Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located N of the area near
38N137W extends a ridge across the waters W of the Baja 
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
a meandering trough over the Gulf of California supports 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshore waters of  
Baja California N of 24N, with gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Northerly
swell with seas 8 to 9 ft is moving across the northern Baja
California offshore waters, N of 27N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across
the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters, 
mostly in the Oaxaca and Guerrero waters. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell in the 
southern Mexico offshore waters, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish in 
the Tehuantepec region through Wed. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds will continue across most of the Baja California offshore
waters through Sat. The NW swell event will propagate across the
waters W of Baja California through Thu. Seas will build to 8 to
10 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 6 to 8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro 
and Punta Eugenia. The swell will reach Cabos San Lucas by Wed
night into Thu, bringing seas near 8 ft. High pressure situated 
over the Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to
strong northerly winds across portions of the Gulf of California 
Wed night into Thu, with seas building 4 to 6 ft. Looking ahead, 
the next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected during the 
upcoming weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
Gale conditions are possible Sun night into Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are pulsing across the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S-SW 
monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters S of 03N while
mainly light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 03N. Seas 
of 4 to 6 ft are observed across the offshore waters. Cross 
equatorial SW swell dominates the area.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Wed night. Winds will increase
across the South American offshore waters later on Thu through
Sat, becoming moderate to locally fresh. Gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas in primarily in SW swell will 
persist elsewhere. A new set of long period SW swell is expected 
to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by 
Thu night into Fri, building seas to 7 or 8 ft through the 
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb located N of the area near 
38N137W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, 
particularly N of 20N W of 115W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 30N and W of 115W.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft N of 07N within these winds. A 1007 mb low 
pressure, former T.S. Pilar, is located near 1.5N119W. This 
system is producing bursts of deep convection within 75 nm of the
low, and fresh to strong winds with seas of 8 ft. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the waters N of 15N and W of 110W 
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through at least Fri. The 
NW swell event will continue to propagate across the waters N of 
06N W of 115W through Wed. This swell will begin to subside
slightly by Thu into Fri until a new swell set enters the waters
by the weekend. Southerly swell will move into the southern 
waters by tonight and spread northward through the end of the 
week. The swell will reach as far north as 05N bringing seas of 8 
ft.

$$
AReinhart