000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N84W to 11N90W to 09N108W.  
The ITCZ stretches from 09N108W to 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 
85W and 88W, and from 06N to 10N between 120W and 130W. A cluster
of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 
from 12.5N to 17N between 115W and 118W. This convective activity
is to the NE of a low pressure located near 13N118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to Strong winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
with seas 8 to 9 ft. Meanwhile, a ridge continues to dominate the
offshore waters of Baja California. This is producing moderate 
to fresh winds off the Baja California Norte coast, with gentle 
to moderate NW to N winds elsewhere across the Baja California 
offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 
to 7 ft in mixed swell over the southern Mexico offshore waters.
Seas are up to 3 ft in the Gulf of California with the exception
of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish in 
the Tehuantepec region through Wed. Meanwhile, weakening cold 
front will approach Baja California Norte today and will bring 
fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas.
These marine conditions will reach the waters north of Punta 
Eugenia tonight, and north of Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. High 
pressure situated over the Great Basin of the United States will 
bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the northern
Gulf of California Wed night into Thu with seas building 4 to 6 
ft. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event is
expected during the upcoming weekend as a cold front moves across
the Gulf of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore
waters S of 02N while mainly light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere N of 02N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed across the 
offshore waters. Cross equatorial SW swell combined with 
northerly swell generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec dominates 
the area. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo Tue night and Wed night, then once again on 
Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in 
primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. A new set of long 
period SW swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri, building seas to
7 or 8 ft through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N115W
to 26N130W to 23N140W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and
seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell are behind the front. Elsewhere, 
a ridge extends across the region north of 19N and W of 118W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the
ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the 
ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds.
A 1008 mb low pres is located near 12N117W along the monsoon 
trough and is producing moderate to fresh winds and seas around 8
ft. Elsewhere E of 130W, winds are moderate to locally fresh 
with seas 5 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle
to moderate winds prevail with seas to 8 ft in mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate as it approaches
Baja California Norte this morning. The swell event will continue
to spread across the waters N of 06N W of 115W by Wed morning. 
Strong high pressure will follow the front, bringing an increase 
in the trade wind flow through at least Fri. Southerly swell will
move into the southern waters by Tue night and continue propagating
north through the end of the week. The swell will reach as far 
north as 02N and bringing seas 8 to 9 ft.

$$
GR