000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 10.8N 112.8W at 05/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm NE quadrant of center. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Pilar is moving toward the west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northwestward motion is forecast to begin early Monday and continue through midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Pilar is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds continue through the Gulf of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. The gales are due to cooler, drier air and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure farther south into the tropical Pacific. Seas are likely reaching 16 ft downstream in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas in excess of 8 ft extending beyond 400 nm offshore. This gap wind event will diminish below gale force tonight into early Mon morning, but fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist until Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A surface trough along the northern coast of Honduras and abundant tropical moisture continue to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is also impacting portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. More storms could develop inland this afternoon and evening due to the diurnal heating. The unstable weather conditions will persist through midweek. Flooding is already occurring across the region. Mudslides are likely in higher terrain areas. Refer to the local weather services for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N94W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 07N118W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 88W and 101W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is just N of the ITCZ near 08N140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters from a 1020 mb high pres located near 28N135W. The pressure gradient between this system and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California supports gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula with the exception of moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. Moderate NW winds are evident in the Gulf of California, with 2 to 3 ft seas. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region are expected to persist into early Mon morning. Associated rough seas will continue to propagate over the waters off eastern Oaxaca and western Chiapas into Mon. The winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish into Tue off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte on Tue followed by fresh NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas. These marine conditions will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Seas are forecast to propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro later on Wed. At the same time, high pressure situated over the Great Basin of the United States will bring moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of California Wed through Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 6 ft within these winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas range 8 to 9 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala W of 93W due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. For the forecast, expect large seas off Guatemala through tonight due to swell generated in the Tehuantepec region by gale force winds. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. A ridge extends across the region north of 20N anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure near 28N135W, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds from 10N to 15N. Seas are to 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.3N 113.7W this evening, 12.1N 114.7W Mon morning, 13.1N 115.7W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low near 14.6N 116.9W Tue morning, 16.0N 118.1W Tue evening, and 17.3N 119.3W Wed morning. Pilar will dissipate early Thu. Elsewhere, a cold front will move into the waters north of 25N today, reach from 30N130W to 25N140W by Mon morning, and begin to weaken as it approaches Baja California Norte on Tue morning. A new swell event will follow the front building seas to 8 to 11 ft on Mon. As the front moves SE a large area of 8 to 9 ft seas will dominate most of the waters N of 20N W of 115W by Wed morning. $$ GR