000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 10.1N 104.6W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 103W and 107W. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Pilar will continue moving toward the west during the next couple of days. By early next week, a slower west- northwestward motion is forecast. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with peak seas estimated to be around 13 ft. These winds are due to a very tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of a cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico a couple of days ago. Gales are expected to persist through Sun night. Very large and dangerous seas of 10-14 ft continues to interact with swells generated by Pilar located well to the southeast of the area and moving farther westward into the open Pacific. This is resulting in confused and hazardous seas where they interact. Strong winds will diminish by Tue as well as seas subsiding below 8 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) is currently in the central Caribbean Sea. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains through the weekend across Central America. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua near 12N86W to 09N101W. The ITCZ extends from 08N108W to 10N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 124W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 78W and 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1022 mb high pres near 31N131W. The pressure gradient from this high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is leading to moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of California, with 2 to 4 ft seas. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds are noted across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Pilar will continue to move farther away from the Mexico offshore waters during the next few days. A gale warning is in effect across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night. The combination of the gale warning and Pilar is resulting in large and confused seas off Oaxaca. Gale force winds will end by Tue with the strong winds diminishing by Tue. Seas will also subside across the Oaxaca offshore waters by Tue. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish by Sun. NW-N winds may increase to fresh to strong offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas range 8 to 9 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event, west of 93W. Seas are within mixed swell across the Central American and South American offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the waters from Costa Rica southeastward to southern Colombia as described above. For the forecast, expect large seas off Guatemala through Sun night due to swell generated off southern Mexico from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. A trough is analyzed from 22N119W to 12N122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 119W and 123W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted around the trough with seas to 6 ft. Surface ridging extends across the region anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure near 31N130W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W. From 20N to 31N, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas range 4 to 7 ft in this area. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 9.9N 106.9W Sat morning, 10.0N 109.6W Sat afternoon, 10.2N 112.0W Sun morning, 10.8N 113.9W Sun afternoon, 11.4N 115.3W Mon morning, and 12.1N 116.7W Mon afternoon. Pilar will weaken to a remnant low near 13.8N 119.1W Tue afternoon. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through early next week. Seas will be mainly 5-7 ft through the next several days, with seas to 8 ft across the trade wind zone. A weak cold front is expected to push across the NW portion of the forecast waters which is expected to bring seas 8 to 9 ft by early next week. $$ AReinhart