023 AXPZ20 KNHC 021552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 11.9N 95.2W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. peak seas are currently around 20 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 94W and 97W. A turn toward the WNW with an increase in forward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a westward motion on Saturday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong gale force N winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas around 18 ft. These winds are due to a very tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of a cold front NE of the area. Gales will persist through early Sun. Very large and dangerous seas of 12-20 ft will merge with swells generated by Pilar located just SE of the area and approaching the Tehuantepec offshore zone this morning, resulting in confused and hazardous seas where they interact. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends S of Pilar near 06N96W to Invest EP93 near 13N116W 1007 mb to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 78W and 93W, from 11N to 16N between 113W and 118W, and from 05N to 12N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A moderate pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of California region, producing moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the open waters away from the Tehuantepec region, along with 4-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, Pilar will move to 11.2N 97.7W this evening, 10.5N 100.9W Fri morning, 10.1N 104.0W Fri evening, 10.2N 106.8W Sat morning, 10.5N 109.2W Sat evening, and 10.9N 111.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.9N 114.5W early Mon. As Pilar moves westward, gales occurring downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec may briefly spread all the way to the NW quadrant of Pilar. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will diminish through the end of the weekend. NW-N winds may increase to fresh to strong offshore Baja California Norte early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Aside from Pilar, gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal winds prevail across the offshore waters with seas 5 to 7 ft. Seas range 9 to 16 ft ft across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala near Pilar, W of 92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the waters from Costa Rica southeastward to southern Colombia as described above. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.2N 97.7W this evening, 10.5N 100.9W Fri morning, 10.1N 104.0W Fri evening, 10.2N 106.8W Sat morning, 10.5N 109.2W Sat evening, and 10.9N 111.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.9N 114.5W early Mon. In addition to high and confused seas interacting between Pilar and seas generated across Tehuantepec, large and dangerous surf will continue along the coastlines of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Pilar. Invest EP93 is centered near 13N116W with associated convection as described above with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Associated winds are 20 kt to locally 25 kt, with seas of 5-6 ft. Otherwise, high pressure prevails N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Winds are moderate or weaker except locally fresh from 08N to 20N and W of 130W. Seas are 4-6 across the remainder of the open waters, locally 7 ft across the trade wind zone of locally fresh winds. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.2N 97.7W this evening, 10.5N 100.9W Fri morning, 10.1N 104.0W Fri evening, 10.2N 106.8W Sat morning, 10.5N 109.2W Sat evening, and 10.9N 111.3W Sun morning. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.9N 114.5W early Mon. Meanwhile, some additional development of this system is possible today while it moves slowly northwestward over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Friday, upper- level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. There is a low chance of development for this system in 48 hours and 7 days. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and around EP93. Seas will be mainly 5-7 ft through the next several days, locally to 8 ft across the trade wind zone and also in the NW waters this weekend as a weak cold front dies just NW of the area. $$ AReinhart