000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300244 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near 11.0N 92.0W at 30/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 82W and 100W. A continued east-northeastward motion is anticipated for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though the core of the system is forecast to stay offshore. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, through Wednesday. Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Pilar NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A small area of fresh to strong N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. A strong cold front is forecast to move through the western Gulf of Mexico Mon night through Wed, and high pressure will surge out ahead of the front resulting in gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon evening. Winds are forecast to reach strong gale Tue night through Wed and trends will need to be monitored in case minimal storm force winds materialize. Seas will build to 12-21 ft across a large area downwind of the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec during the strongest winds. Gale force winds will persist through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from WSW of Pilar near 08N100W to 09N113W to low pressure, EP93, near 09.5N 118.5W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm NW of the monsoon trough between 113W and 120W, and from 02N to 08N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A cold front is moving through NW Mexico and high pressure is surging down across the Rocky Mountain United States. A tight pressure gradient is supporting fresh to near gale force winds in the Gulf of California W of 112W with gale force winds now concluded. Remnant seas from those earlier winds are 8-11 ft N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Gulf of California, with 3-7 ft seas elsewhere W of 112W and 1-3 ft E of 112W. Fresh to strong N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5-6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward, along with 6-8 ft seas in NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 5 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, Pilar will move to 11.2N 91.3W Mon morning, 11.6N 90.2W Mon evening, 12.0N 89.4W Tue morning, 12.3N 88.9W Tue evening, 12.0N 88.9W Wed morning, and 11.2N 89.7W Wed evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.9N 93.0W late Thu. Fresh to near gale force winds in the northern and central Gulf of California will diminish by Wed night. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon morning with locally strong winds filtering through Baja California passages from the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will diminish through early Mon. Otherwise, mainly 4-6 ft seas expected across the remainder of the open waters through the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar. Aside from Pilar, mainly moderate S-SW winds are across the offshore waters with seas of 5-7 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are across the nearshore waters from western Panama northwestward as described above. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.2N 91.3W Mon morning, 11.6N 90.2W Mon evening, 12.0N 89.4W Tue morning, 12.3N 88.9W Tue evening, 12.0N 88.9W Wed morning, and 11.2N 89.7W Wed evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.9N 93.0W late Thu. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period, except becoming fresh in the Gulf of Panama by the end of the week. Looking ahead, a strong gale force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may send very large and dangerous seas offshore Guatemala Tue through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar. High pressure of 1020 mb is located near 29N135W and prevails across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted from 12N to 22N and W of 125W, along with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters, except 4-6 ft N of 25N and W of 132W under the high. Meanwhile, an 1011 mb area of low pressure located more than 1000 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 09.5N 118.5W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, Pilar will move to 11.2N 91.3W Mon morning, 11.6N 90.2W Mon evening, 12.0N 89.4W Tue morning, 12.3N 88.9W Tue evening, 12.0N 88.9W Wed morning, and 11.2N 89.7W Wed evening. Pilar will change little in intensity as it moves to 9.9N 93.0W late Thu. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 130W through Mon, returning by the end of the week. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow development of EP93 during the next couple of days while the low drifts generally northeastward. By the middle of the week, upper- level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development. $$ Lewitsky