000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290247 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 10.5N 92.8W at 29/0300 UTC, moving north at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 90W and 98W. The depression is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected through Sunday. The system is forecast to begin moving northeastward by Monday, and could approach the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system could be near hurricane strength by early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 12N89W, then resumes WSW of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E near 10N97W to low pressure near 08N119W to 06N124W to low pressure near 08N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 77W and 85W, from 04N to 06N between 87W and 89W, from 04N to 08N between 91W and 106W, and from 04N to 08N between 128W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Elsewhere, fresh to near gale force N winds and seas to 8 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A ridge extends southeastward from 1023 mb high pressure near 29.5N132W to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Baja California Norte with seas to 8 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds prevail elsewhere across the Baja California Sur and SW Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-6 ft range. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.8N 92.7W Sun morning, move to 11.2N 92.5W Sun evening, 11.5N 92.0W Mon morning, 12.1N 91.0W Mon evening, 12.8N 90.1W Tue morning, and 12.9N 89.4W Tue evening. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 10.5N 91.5W late Wed. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of California Sun through early Wed, with seas building to around 8 ft by Sun evening. Winds may be near gale-force Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through the next several days, forecast to reach gale force Mon night through at least the end of next week. Winds are forecast to peak at strong gale Tue through Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Aside from Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, mainly moderate S-SW winds are across the offshore waters with seas of 5-7 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are across PAnama and Costa Rica and nearshore areas as described above. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.8N 92.7W Sun morning, move to 11.2N 92.5W Sun evening, 11.5N 92.0W Mon morning, 12.1N 91.0W Mon evening, 12.8N 90.1W Tue morning, and 12.9N 89.4W Tue evening. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 10.5N 91.5W late Wed. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a strong gale force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may send very large and building seas offshore Guatemala by Tue through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. High pressure of 1023 mb is located near 29.5N132W and prevails across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 120W, along with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters, except to 8 ft in the far NE portion where winds are locally fresh. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure, Invest EP93, located well to the south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 08N119W is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that has become a little better organized since yesterday. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.8N 92.7W Sun morning, move to 11.2N 92.5W Sun evening, 11.5N 92.0W Mon morning, 12.1N 91.0W Mon evening, 12.8N 90.1W Tue morning, and 12.9N 89.4W Tue evening. Nineteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 10.5N 91.5W late Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 130W through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Fresh N winds and seas around 8 ft in the NE portion of the basin will persist through Sun. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow development of EP93 through the middle of next week while the low drifts slowly northeastward. $$ Lewitsky