000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of Central America and Mexico (EP92) Gale Warning: A broad 1006 mb area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Guatemala near 11.5N92W. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the low appears to be located well to the west of its broad surface center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 89W and 102W. Current associated winds are 20-25 kt with seas of 8-10 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to meander over the far eastern portion of the Eastern Pacific basin for the next several days. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. For more details, please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua near 12N86W to low pressure, EP92, near 11.5N92W to low pressure near 07N118W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 80W, and from 03N to 07N between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 128W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Guatemala near 11.5N92W. Fresh to strong N winds and seas to 7 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A ridge extends southeastward from 30N130W to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Baja California Norte and near Cabo Corrientes, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 4-6 ft across the open waters, except to 7 ft well offshore Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas prevail, higher near the entrance. For the forecast, other than EP92 just SE of the area, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. NW swell will build seas to near 8 ft west of Baja California Norte this weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of California late this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early next week. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting Tue morning, possibly reaching at least strong gale by late Tue night. Gale force winds may continue through at least the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Guatemala near 11.5N92W. Aside from EP92, fresh to locally strong SW winds are offshore Panama and southern Costa Rica with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are found elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft in SW-W swell prevail away from EP92. For the forecast, other than EP92, fresh to locally strong winds offshore Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh early Sat. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Meanwhile, mixed swell will maintain seas in the 5-8 ft range through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a possible strong gale force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may send large and building seas offshore Guatemala by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted N of 09N to around 20N along with 6-8 ft seas, with gentle to moderate winds and mainly 5-6 ft seas N of there and also S of the monsoon trough where seas are 5-7 ft. Meanwhile, a weak 1012 mb area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 07N118W is producing limited and disorganized shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm of the low. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 130W through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Fresh N winds and seas around 8 ft in the NE portion of the basin will persist this weekend. Meanwhile, environmental conditions near the weak area of low pressure near 07N118W are forecast to be marginally conducive for slow development of the low through early next week while it drifts slowly northeastward. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days, while seas will subside somewhat by early next week. $$ Lewitsky