000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270746 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of Central America and Mexico (EP92) Gale Warning: A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of El Salvador near 10.5N90W is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 08N between 90W and 94W. Associated winds are currently 20-25 kt with seas of 8-9 ft. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly northwestward to northward. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. For more details, please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W to low pressure, EP92, near 10.5N90W to 08N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 90W, from 03N to 09N between 89W and 111W, and from 05N to 09N between 126W and 132W. Similar convection is evident from 13N to 15N between 87W and 99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a couple of hundred nautical miles S of the southern coast of El Salvador. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient. A 1023 mb high pressure system centered NW of the area near 32N129W has an associated ridge extending southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters, except fresh to strong well S-SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, except 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the northern half of the Gulf of California late this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec prior to sunrise through early next week. NW swell will build seas to near 9 ft west of Baja California Norte this weekend. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting next Tue afternoon, possibly reaching at least strong gale by late Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on broad low pressure (EP92) located SE of the Tehuantepec region a couple of hundred nautical miles S of the southern coast of El Salvador. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of EP92. Similar winds are offshore Panama as confirmed by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft in SW-W swell prevail away from EP92. For the forecast, other than EP92, fresh to locally strong winds offshore Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight, then to moderate Sat. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into early next week. Meanwhile, mixed swell will maintain seas in the 5-8 ft range through the weekend and into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 23N with light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted over the remainder of the discussion waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds S of 23N to the N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft will persist in the trade wind region west of 120W through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Fresh N winds and seas around 8 ft will develop in the NE portion of the basin this weekend. Meanwhile, a weak and elongated area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this system during the next several days while it meanders over the southwestern portion of the East Pacific basin. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days, while seas will subside somewhat by early next week. $$ Lewitsky