000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260349
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0335 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest 92E: A low pressure area of 1008 mb is located near 11N90W,
or about 185 nm south of El Salvador. Disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms are observed north of 02N and east of 96W. 
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development 
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by 
this weekend while the low moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. The chance of tropical development over the next 
48 hours is medium. For more details, please read the Tropical 
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1008 mb low pres (EP92) near 11N90W to a 1010 mb low
pres near 07N121W to another 1010 mb low pres near 07N135W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to
09N and between 106W and 116W. Similar convection is noted from
02N to 08N and between 127W and 137W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb subtropical ridge is located near 33N130W and extends
southwestward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to
moderate NW-N winds are prevalent across the offshore waters of
Baja California, except for localized fresh winds in the
nearshore waters of northern Baja California Sur. Moderate seas 
prevail in the waters described. Moderate southerly winds and 
seas of 2-3 ft are found in the northern Gulf of California, 
while mainly light winds and seas of around 1 ft are present in 
the central part of the basin. Moderate NW winds and seas of 2-4 
ft are occurring in the southern Gulf of California and the 
entrance to this basin. Farther south, moderate to fresh NW winds
and seas of 5-7 ft are evident in the nearshore waters of 
Jalisco and Colima.

In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will develop 
west of Baja California Fri night and persist through the 
weekend. The same system will result in strong to near gale force
N winds and seas 7 to 10 ft across the northern and central Gulf
of California beginning early Sun and persisting into early next
week. Localized gale force winds cannot be ruled out in the 
northern Gulf of California Sun. A Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to 
strong gap wind event is likely to begin late Thu night into Fri,
persisting into the weekend. Looking ahead, Invest 92E currently
offshore Central America has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation within the next 7 days. It may approach the area to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Invest 92E located off Central America.

Widespread cloudiness affecting the region is associated with the
interaction between Invest 92E and the monsoon trough. Moderate
to locally fresh S-SW winds are found south of the monsoon 
trough, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Invest EP92 is a 1008 mb low pressure near
11N90W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form by this weekend while the low moves slowly west-
northwestward to northwestward. The low will move little through 
Fri, then begin to move slowly WNW to NW over the weekend. Mixed 
swell will maintain seas in the 6 to 8 ft range across most of 
the waters through the rest of the week. However, seas of 8 to 10
ft will begin developing offshore Central America near EP92 by 
late Thu. This area of rough seas will expand by Fri

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge positioned near 33N130W dominates the 
remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned high pressure and the monsoon trough sustain 
moderate to fresh easterly winds from 09N to 25N and west of 
110W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh easterly winds and seas to 8 ft will
persist in the trade region, especially west of 120W, through
early in the weekend. Please see the Central America section 
above for information on Invest EP92. Elsewhere, fresh N winds
and seas to 9 ft will develop in the northeast portion of the
basin this Sat and continue into Sun.

$$
DELGADO