000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Otis has weakened to a remnant low well inland over Mexico near 
19.1N 100.8W, as of 25/2100 UTC, or about 145 nm NNW of Acapulco,
moving NNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas just offshore have subsided to 8 ft.
Satellite imagery shows shower activity inland over Mexico. The
remnants of Otis will dissipate by this evening. Please see the
final advisory issued by NHC at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 1008 mb low
pressure near 11N90W to 13N93W. The 1008 mb low pressure near 
11N90W has been designated Invest EP92. The monsoon trough 
resumes from 10N101W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N121W to 
1010 mb low pressure near 07N134W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection associated with EP92 extends from 04N
to 14N between 86W and 96W. Similar convection is from 01N to 09N
between 77W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 09N between 104W and 140W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on the remnant low of Otis, which is dissipating over the high 
terrain of Mexico.

A subtropical ridge extends over the Mexico offshore waters,
leading to gentle NW to N winds to the west of Baja California. 
Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell there. Moderate SE to S winds are
over the northern Gulf of California with gentle winds elsewhere
in the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1 to 3 ft. From 
Cabo Corrientes to SE of Manzanillo, fresh to strong NW winds 
are present with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft elsewhere
from there toward Acapulco. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region, moderate W winds and 5 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, Otis will dissipate this evening. Looking 
ahead, fresh north winds along with renewed long period northwest
swell will develop Fri night to the west of Baja California and
persist through the weekend. A cold front associated with this 
system will bring strong to near gale force N winds and seas 7 to
10 ft across the northern and central Gulf of California 
beginning early Sun and persisting into early next week.
Localized gale force winds cannot be ruled out in the northern
Gulf of California Sunday. A Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong
gap wind event is likely to begin late Thu night into Fri, 
persisting into Sat, bringing strong N winds at times. Looking
ahead, Invest EP92, currently offshore Central America, has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days.
It could approach the area to the south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by the end of the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate wind speeds prevail throughout most of the offshore
waters, except for fresh westerly winds well offshore of Costa
Rica. Invest EP92 is a 1008 mb low pressure near 11N90W. 
Convection is described above in the monsoon trough section. 
Environmental conditions should be conducive for development of 
this system, and a tropical depression will likely form late this
week or this weekend while the low moves slowly WNW to NW. Mixed
swell will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across most of the 
waters through the rest of the week, except 8-10 ft seas will 
begin developing offshore Central America near EP92 by late Thu. 
This area of seas will expand by Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A north-south oriented surface ridge extends across the waters
between 130W-140W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed 
near 32N132W. Gentle winds prevail across most of the area north
of 22N. Moderate NE trades prevail between the monsoon trough 
and 22N, locally fresh south of 17N and west of 120W. Moderate 
south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, except
locally fresh between 100W and 120W. Moderate N swell with seas 
7 to 8 ft prevail north of 24N between 118W and 130W. Across the 
southern part of the area, south of 06N between the Galapagos 
Islands and 120W, seas of 7 to 8 ft prevail in mixed swell. 
Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, see the Central America section above for 
information on Invest EP92.

$$ Hagen