000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241057 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 24 2023 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otis is centered near 14.2N 98.5W, or about 180 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. An overnight ASCAT pass nicely depicted periphery 20-33 kt winds elsewhere within 120 nm of Otis, except within 180 nm in the NE quadrant. Peak seas have increased to 18 ft, but may soon become larger. Satellite imagery during the overnight hours suggest that Otis is strengthening as noted in the banding features that have developed. In addition, the center is now more underneath the very deep convection. This convection is seen as the numerous strong type intensity within 90 nm of the center in the W semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection depicts an outer band within 30 nm of a line from 16N99W to 15N100W to 14N101W. Otis is forecast to maintain its current motion for the next couple of days. On the present forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or on Wed. Additional strengthening is forecast, Otis is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches southern Mexico. Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Fri across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Hurricane conditions are expected withing portions of the hurricane warning area by late tonight and on Wed. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas through Wed. Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Otis NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from extreme northwest Colombia to across central Costa Rica and to near 11N90W. It resumes at 11N101W to 08N110W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 09N133W and to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 101W-107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 120W-122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula and relatively broad lower pressure in northwest Mexico is supporting fresh northwest to north-northwest winds to the west of Baja California. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. Over the central and northern Gulf of California, fresh to strong west to northwest winds are present along with seas of 3-5 ft seas. In the southern Gulf of California, and at the entrance to the Gulf, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found there. The remainder of the southwestern Mexican offshore waters outside of Otis is under generally gentle west to northwest winds and seas 6-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Otis will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 99.0W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then move to near 16.1N 99.7W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt and inland Mexico to near 17.1N 100.3W Wed afternoon. Otis will continue inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.9N 100.9W late Wed night, then to a remnant low near 18.6N 101.6W Thu afternoon and dissipate late Thu night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds in the central Gulf of California will diminish by early this afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh northwest winds will continue through early Wed across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas of 8-9 ft in long-period northwest swell offshore central and northern Baja California will subside Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis, which is strengthening. Outside of Otis, generally gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 6-8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in mixed southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Otis will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 99.0W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then move to near 16.1N 99.7W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt and make landfall in Mexico near 17.1N 100.3W Wed afternoon. Otis will continue inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.9N 100.9W late Wed night, then to a remnant low near 18.6N 101.6W Thu afternoon and dissipate late Thu night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through early this afternoon, then materialize again Thu into early on Fri. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area through Wed night. Looking ahead, westerly wind speeds could increase north of the Equator toward the end of the work week as broad low pressure is likely to form over the far eastern Pacific waters. Mixed swell will maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range across most of the waters through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A north-south oriented surface ridge extends across the waters between 130W-140W. The gradient resulting from this synoptic set-up is favorable in supporting mainly moderate anticyclonic winds between 130W-140W, and moderate north winds east of 130W. The exception is moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of 25N and east of 127W. Moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough as seen in overnight ASCAT data passes across that part of the area. Moderate northwest swell continues to propagate across most of the waters between 94W- 115W. Seas are 8-9 ft due to long-period northwest swell west of the Galapagos Islands to 115W, mainly south of about 09N. For the forecast, moderate to fresh north winds are north of 23N and east of 130W as high pressure continues to the north of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. These winds will diminish on Tue. Meanwhile, long-period northwest swell entering the far NE part of the area is forecast to spread south of 30N to near 26N and east of 130W building seas to 8-10 ft. The swell will decay on Wed allowing for those seas to subside to a peak of 7 ft. $$ Aguirre