000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otis is centered near 12.0N 97.5W, or about 325 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico at 23/1500 UTC, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are about 15 ft. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection within 210 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm NW semicircle and within 210 nm SE semicircle. Otis is expected to maintain a north-northwestward motion during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast of Mexico early Wed. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Otis is expected to produce heavy rainfall through Friday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico by Tue night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Otis NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Norma has weakened to a remnant low near 24.9N 107.7W, or about 15 nm WNW of Culaican, Mexico, moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are about 13 ft in the southern Gulf of California, but gradually subsiding. Satellite imagery shows that all of the significant shower and thunderstorms activity has dissipated over water, with only a small amount of convection remaining, well inland. The remnants of Norma are expected to dissipate later today or tonight. Seas over the southern Gulf of California will subside to 10 ft this afternoon and to 7 ft by this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the final Norma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N90W, then resumes west of Otis from 11N104W to 09N116W to 1011 low pres near 10N123W to 09N127W. A surface trough extends from 14N132W to 09N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 81W and 89W, and from 04N to 10N between 94W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis and on the remnants of Tropical Depression Norma. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula and Norma is supporting fresh northwest to north winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas are 7-9 ft with these winds. Over the central and northern Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds are present along with 3 to 4 ft seas. The remainder of the southwestern Mexican offshore waters outside of Norma and Otis have gentle variable winds and seas 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, the remnants of Norma will dissipate by this evening. Tropical Storm Otis will move to near 14N98W Tue morning, strengthen slightly to a 55 kt tropical storm near 15.5N99W Wed morning, and move inland to near 17.5N100.5W Thu morning before dissipating inland Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh winds will continue through today across the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Northwest swell across the Baja California offshores along with swell generated by Norma will continue to subside by late this afternoon at the entrance of the Gulf of California. A new set of long-period northwest swell will enter the offshores of Baja California Norte north of Punta Eugenia this evening and subside Wed morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis, which is giving some fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft across the waters well offshore of western Guatemala. Outside of Otis, generally light to gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 6-8 ft east of the Galapagos Islands in mixed southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Otis will move to near 14N98W Tue morning, strengthen slightly to a 55 kt tropical storm near 15.5N99W Wed morning, and move inland to near 17.5N100.5W Thu morning before dissipating inland Thu night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through today. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area through most of the week. Mixed swell will create seas to 8 ft across most of the waters through most of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A north-south oriented surface ridge extends across the waters between 130W and 140W. This is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough as seen in overnight ASCAT data. Large northwest swell continues to propagate across most of the waters between 94W-115W along with seas of 8-9 ft. Fresh NW to N winds are north of 25N and east of 130W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will continue today north of 23N and east of 130W as high pressure continues to the north of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, a new set of long-period northwest swell is forecast to spread south of 30N and the east of 130W beginning this evening, potentially building seas of 8-10 ft north of 26N, with the highest seas expected north of 29N. $$ Hagen