000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230955 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 23 2023 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norma is centered near 25.0N 109.0W, or about 50 nm south of Los Mochis, Mexico at 23/0300 UTC, moving east- northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 21 ft. Satellite imagery depicts Norma as a sheared system, with its mostly exposed center visible over the southern Gulf of California. Its deep convection has been sheared off to the east over Mexico and the adjacent coast from 24N to 26N. Recent satellite imagery indicates that this convection is rapidly weakening. On the current forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico tonight and move inland within the tropical storm warning area early on Mon. Norma is expected to move over the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm early on Mon. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico. Norma will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with storm total maxima of 18 inches in and near Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norma NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Otis is centered near 11.1N 97.3W, or about 380 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico at 23/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are about 13 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the northeast of Otis from 12N to 14N between 95W-97W. Otis is expected to maintain its present motion for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern coast of Mexico on Wed. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of southern Mexico from Oaxaca to Guerrero later this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eighteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Colombia to the northern Gulf of Panama and to 08N93W. It resumes at 09N103W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to low pressure near 10N123W 1011 mb and to 11N128W to 06N135W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south and 60 nm north of the trough between 103W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 109W-117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Norma and Tropical Storm Otis. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula and Norma is supporting fresh to strong northwest to north winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas are 8-10 ft with these winds. Similar seas are near entrance of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California north of 27N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. The remainder of the southwestern Mexican offshore waters have light to gentle variable winds prevailing and seas to 9 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Norma will move inland to near 25.3N 108.3W Mon morning, then weaken to a remnant low near 26.0N 107.0W Mon evening and dissipate Tue morning. Additionally, Tropical Storm Otis is near 11.1N 97.3W, or about 380 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico at 8 PM PDT. It is moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Otis will maintain intensity as it moves to near 11.7N 97.4W Mon morning, then slowly strengthen as it moves to near 12.6N 97.6W Mon evening, to near 13.6N 97.9W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 14.5N 98.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.2N 98.7W Wed morning, and to near 16.1N 99.3W Wed evening. Otis is forecast to moved inland southern Mexico near 17.6N 100.6W late on Thu. Elsewhere, strong winds will persist through Mon morning across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Long-period northwest swell across the Baja California offshores along with swells generated by Norma will continue to result in confused and hazardous seas at the entrance of the Gulf of California through tonight. This swell will subside by Mon. A new set of northwest swell will enter the offshores of Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia Mon night and subside Wed morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Otis. Outside of Otis, scatterometer data showed moderate winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds persist elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S winds are noted. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters due to Otis. Seas are 6-8 ft west of the Galapagos Islands due to mostly northwest swell. Otherwise, seas range 5-7 ft due to mixed southwest and northwest swell. For the forecast, Otis will maintain intensity as it moves to near 11.7N 97.4W Mon morning, then slowly strengthen as it moves to near 12.6N 97.6W Mon evening, to near 13.6N 97.9W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 14.5N 98.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.2N 98.7W Wed morning, and to near 16.1N 99.3W Wed evening. Otis is forecast to moved inland southern Mexico near 17.6N 100.6W late on Thu. Elsewhere, winds will increase to locally fresh across the South America and Galapagos Islands offshore waters briefly on Mon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area through most of the week. Mixed swell will create seas to 8 ft across most of the waters through most of the upcoming week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on Tropical Storm Norma and Tropical Storm Otis. Surface ridging extends across the northern forecast waters, N of 16N and W of 120W. This is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted. Large northwest swell continues to propagate across most of the waters between 94W and 122W along with seas of 8-10 ft. For the forecast, Otis will move to 11.7N 97.4W Mon morning, then slowly strengthen as it moves to near 12.6N 97.6W Mon evening, to near 13.6N 97.9W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 14.5N 98.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.2N 98.7W Wed morning, and to near 16.1N 99.3W Wed evening. Otis is forecast to moved inland southern Mexico near 17.6N 100.6W late on Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate winds across the open waters through today. Winds may increase moderate to fresh on Mon as high pressure builds N of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, a new set of long-period northwest swell is forecast to spread S of 30N to the E of 130W by Mon, potentially building seas of 8-10 ft ft north of 25N, with the highest seas north of 29N. $$ Aguirre