000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat night. Winds will increase to gale force by Sun night into early Mon morning and persisting through Tue night. Seas will build to 16 ft during this time. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong across the region through most of the week. Seas will drop below 12 ft by Tue night, and subside below 8 ft by Wed into Wed night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N111W to a 1010 mb low near 10N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 80W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and E of 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range off the Baja California Sur peninsula in subsiding northwesterly swell. Seas range 6 to 7 ft across the southwestern and southern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the Oaxaca offshore waters, otherwise no significant convection is noted in the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will subside tonight. Light to gentle winds across the Baja California and Gulf of California will increase to moderate tonight into Sun. Gap winds will strengthen to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds in the Tehuantepec region may reach gale- force by Sun night into early Mon then diminish below gale- force by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will continue through most of the week. Seas will be rough tonight through Wed night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of formation in 48 hours and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted N of 05N in the Central American offshore waters with seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted across the rest of the offshore waters S of 05N. Seas range 6 to 7 ft across these waters in S swell. For the forecast, moderate winds will diminish across the South American offshore waters by Sun. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail across the Central and South American waters through early next week. Long- period southerly swell will slowly subside across the area through Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipated cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas ranging 8-9 ft over the NW waters, N of 24N and W of 129W. High pressure of 1018 mb centered near 29N126W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the discussion waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of a 1010 mb low pres near 11N137W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S of the monsoon trough. Altimeter pass earlier today still showed NW swell with seas 8-9 ft from 13N to 20N between 112W and 120W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the discussion waters will subside tonight. Northwest swell over the NW waters will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft over the far northwest waters through tonight, with a reinforcing set of NW swell moving into the NW waters by Sun morning. This swell will propagate southward through the middle of next week. $$ AReinhart