000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140831 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N96W to 10N115W to 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 82W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters off Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range off the Baja California peninsula in subsiding northwesterly swell. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range across the southwestern and southern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft, are noted in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will subside today. Light to gentle winds across the Baja California and Gulf of California will prevail today before increasing slightly tonight into Sun. Gap winds will strengthen across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds in the Tehuantepec region may reach gale- force by early Mon, then diminish below gale- force by Tue with fresh to strong winds continuing through midweek. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across the Central American offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted in the South American offshore waters. Southerly swell propagating across the discussion waters is producing seas in the 6-7 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters today before diminishing Sun. Elsewhere, Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail across the Central and South American waters through early next week. Long- period southerly swell will slowly subside across the area through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N131W to 28N138W. The cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-9 ft range over the NW waters. High pressure of 1017 mb centered east of the front near 28N128W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters N of 25N, and gentle to moderate wind speeds S of 25N. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range N of 19N and E of 120W in subsiding NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the discussion waters will subside today. The cold front will dissipate today. Northwest swell over the NW waters will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft over the far northwest waters today, with a reinforcing set of NW swell moving into the NW waters by Sun morning. This swell will propagate southward through the middle of next week. $$ AL