000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N96W to 11N115W to
11N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 82W and 100W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between
122W and 130W, and from 08N to 12N between 135W and 140W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Light
to gentle winds prevail across most of the offshore waters of 
Mexico, reaching moderate speeds off SW Mexico. Seas are in the
7-9 ft range off the Baja California peninsula in northwesterly 
swell. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range across the southwestern 
and southern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds, and 
seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters will subside by Sat morning. Light to 
gentle winds across the Baja California and Gulf of California 
will prevail through Sat before increasing slightly Sat night 
into Sun. Gap winds will strengthen across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Sun morning. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will 
possibly reach gale- force by early Mon, then diminish below 
gale- force by Tue with fresh to strong winds continuing through 
midweek. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional 
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by 
the middle to latter part of the week while meandering well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across the Central 
American offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted in
the South American offshore waters. Southerly swell propagating 
across the discussion waters is producing 6-7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters by Sat. 
Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the Central and 
South American waters through early next week. Long- period 
southerly swell will slowly subside across the area through the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends from 30N132W to 28N140W. The
cold front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-9
ft range west of the front. High pressure of 1016 mb centered 
east of the low near 28N129W extends a ridge SE to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. extends across the northern waters. Light 
to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 8-9 ft range N of 19N and E of 123W in subsiding NW swell.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.  

For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the
discussion waters will subside by Sat. The cold front will
dissipate this weekend. Northwest swell over the NW waters will
maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft over the far northwest waters through
Sat. Another set of NW swell will reach the NW waters later this
weekend, ahead of a cold front that is forecast to reach 30N140W
on Mon. This swell will propagate southward through the middle 
of next week.

$$
AL