000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132159
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 12N95W to 10N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 81W and 
97W, from 06N to 10N between 120W and 127W and from 06N to 12N 
and W of 135W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to extend across the Baja California offshore 
waters. The latest scatterometer depicted light to gentle winds
across most of the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate SW winds
were noted off the Oaxaca coastline with 8 ft seas. Northwesterly
swell continues to bring 8-10 ft seas across the Baja California
offshore waters. Otherwise, seas range 6 to 7 ft across the rest
of the southwestern and southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas 
range 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are 
occurring in the Oaxaca offshore waters. Otherwise, benign 
conditions are seen across the rest of the region. 

For the forecast, northwesterly swell impacting the Baja 
California offshore waters will subside by Sat morning. Winds 
across the Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters
will continue to be light to gentle through Sat. Winds could 
become moderate by Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong gap winds
will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun morning. Winds 
in the Tehuantepec region will possibly reach gale- force by 
early Mon, then diminish below gale- force by Tue. The fresh to 
strong winds will continue through midweek. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development after that, and a 
tropical depression could form during the later portion of the 
week while the system drifts slowly northward. The latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across the Central 
American offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted in
the South American offshore waters. Southerly swell propagating 
across the discussion waters is producing 6-7 ft seas. Scattered 
thunderstorms are also noted off the coast of Colombia and the 
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, winds are expected to increase to moderate to
locally fresh across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters by Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the
Central and South American waters through early next week. Long-
period southerly swell will slowly subside across the area 
through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends across the northern waters. The latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds N of the 
monsoon trough. Seas range 6 to 7 ft. Northwesterly swell is 
propagating in the NW waters, N of 19N and E of 125W. Seas in 
this region are 8-10 ft. Meanwhile, scatterometer showed gentle 
to moderate winds prevailing S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
6-8 ft in S to SW swell are noted S of the monsoon trough and E 
of 115W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, the NW swell over the NE portion of the
discussion waters will subside by Sat. High pressure over the 
area will gradually shift eastward and weaken through Fri as a 
cold front enters the northwest part of the area while weakening.
Northwest swell will follow in behind this front, bringing seas 
of 8 to 9 ft to the far northwest waters from Fri through Sat. 
Another cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W on Mon, bringing 
another set of NW swell to the area early next week, continuing
to propagate southward through midweek. 

$$
AReinhart