000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Lidia is near 19.6N 106.6W at 10/2130 UTC, or about 70 nm southwest of Cabo Corrientes and about 95 nm southwest of Puerto Vallarta moving east-northeast at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has recently fallen to 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has recently increased to 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Lida continues to rapidly intensify as noted by a solid wide ring of very cold cloud top temperatures that surrounds the clearly visible eye that is about 10 nm in diameter. This ring of very deep and intense convection consists of the numerous strong type intensity within 150 nm of the center in the NE, 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Peak seas have significantly increased to 35 ft, with the 12 ft sea radii extending as far as 240 nm in the SE quadrant. Periphery winds of 20-33 kt and seas of 10-17 ft reach as far as 300 nm to the southwest of Lidia. Lidia is forecast to acquire a faster east-northeast motion through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane warning area in west-central Mexico this evening. Some additional strengthening is possible before Lidia make landfall this evening. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wed across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W north of 04N to inland central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 10N85W to 11N91W to 16N100W. It resumes well to the southwest of Hurricane Lidia at 13N115W to 10N124W and to 08N128W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N128W to 09N135W and to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 81W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the trough from 04N to 08N between 92W-99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through late tonight across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh NW to north winds with seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will become gentle to moderate southwest winds over the northern part tonight and light to gentle elsewhere. To the south and southeast of the southern part of the Gulf, marine conditions have begun to deteriorate as Lidia approaches the coast of Mexico between Cabo Corrientes and Las Marias Islands. Seas have built to 8-12 ft near the entrance to the Gulf, with much high seas of 19 to 29 ft from 20N to 22N. For the forecast, Lidia will move inland Mexico to near 21.2N 104.0W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then continue inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.3N 100.6W Wed afternoon and dissipate late Wed night. Another cold front will move across the northern forecast Wed bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mostly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds south of 04N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will continue north of of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds south of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4-7 ft range and to 8 ft farther west. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds remain east of 120W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Lidia. An area of fresh south to southwest winds is south of the monsoon trough to about 09N between 110W and 122W. Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to locally strong southwest to west winds south of Lidia that reach as far south as 10N between 108W-115W along with seas of 8-101 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds remain there. Outside of Hurricane Lidia, seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 20N and 5-7 ft south of 20N, except for seas to 8 ft just south of 3.4S and east of 120W due to southerly long-period swell. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail west of about 120W through Wed, then extend eastward toward Baja California as Hurricane Lidia makes landfall in west-central Mexico this evening. A cold front will move across the northern forecast waters through Wed ushering in increasing winds and seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia. Seas to 11 ft are expected near 30N on Wed. The southerly long-period swell is expected to reach near 07N between 90W-105W and to near 05N between 80W-90W by around Thu afternoon. $$ Aguirre