000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102152 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023 Corrected Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lidia is near 19.2N 107.8W at 10/1500 UTC, moving east-northeast at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west- central Mexico. Dangerous hurricane force winds and flooding rains are expected to begin in west-central Mexico this afternoon. Peak seas are around 29 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm of center, except 210 nm in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery shows that the central dense overcast (CDO) has become circular during the last few hours. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within of the center 60 nm, except 90 nm SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N to 18N between 102W-105W. Lidia is forecast to acquire a faster east-northeast motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane warning area in west- central Mexico this evening or overnight. Additional strengthening is forecast today and Lidia could be near major hurricane strength as it approaches the west-central coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Max has dissipated over Mexico and the last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Remnants of Max are centered near 19.5N 100.5W at 10/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 85W north of 03N to inland eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 10N84W to 15N99W. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Lidia at 13N115W and to 09N126W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N135W and to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 90W-99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh NW to north winds with seas of 5-7 ft. Winds and seas will further increase tonight into Wed as a cold front moves across this area. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail today, except in the southern part of the Gulf where marine conditions will deteriorate as Lidia approaches the coast of Mexico between Cabo Corrientes and Las Marias Islands. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected near the entrance to the Gulf of California by this evening. For the forecast, Lidia will move to near 20.2N 105.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then move inland and dissipate Wed evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mostly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds south of 04N. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4-7 ft range and to 8 ft farther west. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail especially E of 125W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and Hurricane Lidia. An area of fresh south to southwest winds is south of the monsoon trough to about 09N between 110W and 122W. Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to locally strong southwest to west winds south of Lidia that reach as far south as 10N between 108W-115W along with seas of 8-101 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. Outside of the tropical cyclone, seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 20N and 5-7 ft south of 20N. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the northwest part of the discussion area in the wake of a frontal trough. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail west of about 120W through midweek, then extend eastward toward Baja California as Hurricane Lidia makes landfall in west-central Mexico this evening or tonight. A cold front will move across the northern forecast waters through Wed, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia. Another cold front is expected to reach near 30N on Wed. $$ Aguirre