000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Lidia strengthens into a hurricane. Hurricane force winds and flooding rains are expected to begin in west-central Mexico on Tue. Hurricane Lidia is centered near 18.2N 110.2W at 10/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm E semicircle, 120 nm SW quadrant, and 90 nm NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 60 nm SW semicircles. Similar convective activity is in an outer band from 15N to 18N between 111W and 114W. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Tuesday and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday as Lidia approaches the coast of west-central Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Max is now a tropical depression moving well inland over southern Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely along the coast of southern Mexico tonight and Tue. Tropical Depression Max is centered near 18.1N 100.9W at 10/0300 UTC, moving north- northeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm S and 30 nm N semicircles. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast, and this motion is expected to continue as Max moves farther inland over southern Mexico. Max is expected to continue weakening as it moves farther inland, with the depression expected to dissipate over Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning. Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Periods of gusty winds are possible tonight and early Tuesday. Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Lidia and T.D. Max NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N96W, then resumes SW of Hurricane Lidia near 12N113W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 110W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia and Tropical Depression Max. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. Winds and seas will further increase Tue night into Wed as a cold front moves across this area. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through Tue, except in the southern part of the Gulf where marine conditions will deteriorate as Lidia approaches Las Marias Islands. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 19.1N 108.5W Tue morning, 20.6N 105.9W Tue evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.5N 103.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Max will move inland to 18.8N 100.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer pass indicates mainly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds S of 04N. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range by the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Lidia and Tropical Depression Max. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. A band of fresh SW winds is seen S of the monsoon trough to about 11N between 110W and 122W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Lidia, extending as far south as 11N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, except W of 135W where moderate to locally fresh trades are noted. Outside of the tropical cyclones, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft N of 20N and 5 to 7 ft S of 20N. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail W of 120W through mid- week. A cold front will move across the northern forecast waters tonight through Wed. Another cold front will reach 30N on Wed. $$ GR