000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 18.5N 111.8W at 09/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 23 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm E semicircle, 120 nm SW quadrant, and 90 nm NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N between 109W and 117W. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Max is centered near 17.1N 101.2W at 09/1500 UTC, moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft within 30 nm N semicircle, 60 nm SE quadrant, and 45 nm SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted N of 14N between 100W and 105W. On the forecast track, Max should make landfall by this afternoon within the warning area, then move farther inland over southern Mexico. Max could intensify up until it makes landfall this afternoon, with rapid weakening expected afterwards. Max should dissipate over Mexico on Tuesday. Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Lidia and T.S. Max NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N94W, then resumes SW of T.S. Lidia near 12N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 88W and 100W, and from 08N to 12N between 119W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Two tropical cyclones are forecast to make landfall in Mexico this week. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. The ridge will persist through mid-week. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge and tropical cyclone Lidia supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds beginning tonight. Winds and seas will further increase Tue night into Wed as a cold front moves across this area. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through Tue, except in the southern part of the Gulf where marine conditions will deteriorate as Lidia approaches Las Marias Islands. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.0N 110.6W this evening, move to 20.0N 108.4W Tue morning, 21.4N 105.9W Tue evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.1N 103.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Tropical Storm Max will move inland to 17.7N 100.9W this evening, and dissipate Tue morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer pass indicates mainly light and variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds S of 04N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Lidia, extending as far south as 08N. Elsewhere gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, except W of 135W where gentle to moderate trades are noted. Outside of the tropical cyclones, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft N of 20N and 5 to 7 ft S of 20N. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail W of 120W through mid- week. A cold front will approach to 30N140W today and move across the northern forecast waters tonight through Wed. Another cold front will reach 30N by mid-week. $$ ERA